Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 5 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 5 Update

College Football Week 5 Lines Moves

We moved ahead in college football and it’s obvious the lines are getting sharper on early releases. We still found five line moves that are significant and we break them all down. We have Friday Free Picks, which have us at 17-11 and on a 9-4 run. Plus, review the Public Betting Trends, which are 65% on sides this season.

CFB – (105) Virginia Tech at (106) Miami-FL -19
Friday, September 27 – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Virginia Tech this season was supposed to be the beginning of a return to at least the Top 25 of college football. But with losses at Vanderbilt and home last Saturday to Rutgers, the Hokies season could be in trouble traveling to face #7 Miami. Two issues are clear for Virginia Tech. The Hokies are #95 trying to stop the run, permitting 181 yards a game. And take away 332 passing yards in the opener, QB Kyron Drones has averaged 147.6 YPG throwing since. With the Hurricanes having tremendous talent on both sides of the ball, little wonder Virginia Tech from +16 to +19. Update: This line came down halfway on Thursday back to 17.5, possibly with lingering concerns with Miami on a 5-11 ATS run at home. Will the Hokies up their play?

Bet Percentage: Was Miami 90+%, now 60%

Doug’s Pick – Sorry, Premium Pick

CFB – (117) Georgia Southern at (118) Georgia St. -3
Saturday, September 28 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPNU

Once again, the best things usually come first and are later homogenized. This Sun Belt rivalry was known for years as “Modern Day Hate”, which spoke to its intensity. Some whined and instead, we now have a corporate sponsor changing the name to – Georgia Grown (yawn). Oh well, Georgia State is the home team in this bitter matchup and they have gone from a Pick to -3. The home team has been on a 4-1 SU and ATS run and 5-2-1 ATS since 2016. In seeking a reason for the line movement, Georgia Southern is #132 (of #134) in total defense. When looking for the spread winner, find the right side when breaking this contest down, because the SU winner is on a 9-0-1 ATS run. Update: There has been a slight bump on the home team to -3.5 despite mostly sharp action backing Georgia Southern. The visiting Eagles have the more explosive offense, but that defense can have you reaching for the Tums. While backing the home team now comes with the hook, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off one or more straight Overs, an average offensive team (21 to 28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) are 30-8 ATS, winning by 6.2 PPG.

Bet Percentage: Was Georgia State 83%, now Georgia Southern 63%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Georgia State

CFB – (137) Colorado at (138) UCF -14
Saturday, September 28 – 3:30 p.m. ET / FOX

Colorado might not be that good a team, but they have star power on the field and a coach that attracts attention and eyeballs to watch the Buffaloes. Colorado had a Hail Mary pass answered against Baylor to tie the game at the buzzer and they won in OT against the Bears. Early betting action has pounded the Buffs as you can see below, but the sharp money is backing Central Florida at home, lifting them from -11 to -14. The Knights had a miracle win of their own two Saturdays ago at TCU, outscoring the Horned Frogs 28-6 in the final 28 minutes to escape 35-34. UCF is #4 in rush defense, but with Colorado’s #20 pass offense, they’ve been able to overcome ranking #124 in rushing. Not sure sharp money respects the Buffaloes as much on the road. Update: The betting public is satisfied with this line that hasn’t moved despite the money now backing UCF. In truth the OVER looks like the smartest play, however, the Knights #2 run offense could overpower the Buffs’ defense. This feels tricky because the Colorado pass offense which leaves the back door wide open.

Bet Percentage: Was Colorado 80%, now UCF 55%

Doug’s Pick – Lean UCF

CFB – (151) Oklahoma St. at (152) Kansas St. Total 56
Saturday, September 28 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

For Oklahoma State, another Big 12 defeat might eliminate them for a spot in the conference title game. Kansas State was slaughtered 38-9 at BYU, undone by a 3-0 turnover deficit, in a contest they outgained the Cougars 367 to 241. Big 12 football bettors are focused on the total, moving upwards by three points to 55. The Cowboys are weaker than expected, especially in the lines. RB Ollie Gordon II was supposed to be an All-American, but to date has 248 yards, averaging 3.5 yards a carry. Okie State’s run defense checks in at #104, one tick from 200 YPG allowed. With Kansas State at home and #16 in rushing, the Wildcats will move the ball and we will find out who coach Mike Gundy will choose for quarterback. Update: This total continued to rise and is up to 57.5. There is no value in taking the Over at this point and if you look at the last six meetings, not once has this total surpassed the current figure. Both offenses lack consistency and when you put the package together, the UNDER makes the most sense.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 60%, now 75%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

CFB – (165) Navy at (166) UAB +3
Saturday, September 28 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN2

Navy is returning to on-brand after upsetting Memphis 56-44 as nine-point home favorites. The Midshipmen are 3-0 (2-1 ATS) and were floated from a Pick to -3 at UAB. The Blazers wisely used their bye week to have two weeks to prepare for the Navy’s option which is #3 in rushing. UAB is coached by Super Bowl champion QB Trent Dilfer, who got the job after being a successful high school coach in Tennessee and likely name recognition. The Blazers’ offense is only #104 in yards per play and they are #123 in rush defense, which includes taking on Alcorn State. Update: Navy has crept up to -3.5. We are not saying the Navy is as good as Army but the Black Knights routed Temple on Thursday with the same style of play. Take note, that home underdogs after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games, against an opponent who has scored 24 points or more in the first half of their last game, have lost by 16.4 PPG the last 32 times that exact situation occurred.

Bet Percentage: Was 80% Navy, now 75%

Doug’s Pick – Navy covers

NEW – CFB – (179) Oklahoma at (180) Auburn -1
Saturday, Sept. 28 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ABC

Both team’s quarterbacks are not helping their offenses. Oklahoma opened as a 2.5-point road favorite and has been switched to a one-digit road underdog. Not exactly sure why because the Tigers already have home losses to California and Arkansas and their coach Hugh Freeze is starting to get the cold shoulder from Auburn fans. The Sooners are off a big game home loss to Tennessee but going on the road should allow them to circle those Boomer Sooner wagons. And let’s not overlook Oklahoma leads the nation in takeaways with 12 and Auburn leads the nation in giveaways with 14.

Bet Percentage: Oklahoma 70%

Doug’s Pick – Oklahoma covers

CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) 13-7 record: Wyoming, Memphis, Wake Forest, San Diego State and James Madison

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) 11-9 record: Iowa St./Houston UNDER, Oregon/UCLA OVER, San Diego St./Central Mich. UNDER, Eastern Mich./Kent State UNDER and New Mexico/New Mexici St. UNDER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.