Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 8

College Football Week 8 Early Lines Moves

We have reached the basic midpoint of the regular season in college football. Not that it has not mattered previously, but the stakes get larger every week for postseason contenders and those looking to get bowl-eligible. Return Friday for our smoking 30-18 (62.5%) Free Picks on these games.

CFB – (375) Michigan (376) Illinois  Total 43.5
Saturday, October 19 – 3:30 p.m. ET / CBS

The Big Ten has six-ranked teams and these are two of them. One of them will fall out of the ranking with a loss. The Wolverines are coming off a bye, while Illinois is probably still shocked they needed overtime to hold off Purdue, permitting a season-high 536 yards to a 1-5 Boilermakers offense that had hardly been competitive. That shoddy defensive showing by the Fighting Illini probably spooked bettors and the total is up two points to 43.5, still suggesting a defensive contest. Michigan is 10-4 OVER after the first month of the season, the past three years.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 60%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (379) New Mexico at (380) Utah State  +2.5
Saturday, October 19 – 4:00 p.m. ET / truTV

The fact this line moved with these two mediocre squads’ sharp money is influenced by New Mexico’s ability to score. Defensively, these two Mountain West clubs allow over 40 PPG, but the Lobos offense averages 35.2 PPG compared to Utah State at just 25 PPG. Coach Bronco Mendenhall’s squad has posted 50 and 52 points in the past two outings and was moved from a Pick to -2.5 at Logan, Utah. This is just the fifth time in the past five seasons the Lobos are a road fave and are 1-3 SU and ATS.

Early Bet Percentage: New Mexico 56%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (399) LSU at (400) Arkansas Total 54.5
Saturday, October 19 – 7:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

This a rugged scheduling spot for LSU after their smallish home upset of Ole Miss in OT and traveling to face Arkansas, who comes in off a bye week. After surrendering 64 points to Oklahoma State and a crummy UAB club, the Razorbacks defense has conceded only 49 points to three good SEC clubs. With the LSU defense holding the Rebels to 23 points in regulation time, the total on this tilt has fallen from 57 to 54.5. The conceptual aspect of a lower score makes sense but both coaches have Over tendencies. Let’s follow the total during the week.

Early Bet Percentage: UNDER 70%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (413) UNLV at (414) Oregon State  +7.5
Saturday, October 19 – 10:00 p.m. ET / CW Network

This takes some getting used to, especially for UNLV football fans. The Rebels are having a great season and are flying up to Corvallis, OR to take on the Beavers. And are not only road favorites but have been moved from -5 to -7.5. Oregon State is coming off three straight winning seasons, but with the demise of the previous Pac-12, their head coach leaving and the shock of playing basically as an independent, the situation in the world of Orange and Black is unsettled. That’s not the case for UNLV with Barry Odom running the football program and doing a masterful job, scoring 40 PPG and winning by 16.2 PPG.

Early Bet Percentage: UNLV 80%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (419) Nebraska at (420) Indiana -7
Saturday, October 19 – 12:00 p.m. ET / FOX

If there was ever a game that explained how college football is changing in the Big Ten, this is it. Even with the reconfigured conference adding Oregon, the Ducks, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan are the bell cows. That is likely true at the end of the regular season, but this Saturday we have 5-1 Nebraska on the rebound at 6-0 (not a typo) Indiana. The Huskers figured to be improved and are an OT loss away from being undefeated themselves. Words alone cannot describe what first-year coach Curt Cignetti has done. Granted, this was a veteran team coming back, yet, for the Hoosiers to have a perfect record in the second half of October, AND on a 5-0 ATS spurt facing rising expectations is just amazing. Indiana is up from -4.5 to -7 early.

Bet Percentage: Indiana 63%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

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