Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 8 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 8 Update

College Football Week 8 Lines Moves

We have reached the basic midpoint of the regular season in college football. Not that it has not mattered previously, but the stakes get larger every week for postseason contenders and those looking to get bowl-eligible. Check out our smoking 30-18 (62.5%) Free Picks on these games. All see our profitable public betting trends below.

NEW – CFB – (339) Kentucky at (340) Florida +2.5,
Saturday, Oct. 19 – 7:45 p.m. ET / SECN

After Kentucky was upset at home by Vanderbilt, Florida was installed as a one-point home favorite. As the week progressed, bettors considered that Gators’ defense still had problems that possibly the Wildcats could exploit it. Plus, the two-headed quarterback was shockingly working for coach Billy Napier, but with Graham Mertz done for the year, DJ Lagway becomes the full-time starter and he’s been mistake-prone. Taking into consideration everything, Kentucky is now a 2.5-point pick. A tough call either way, but catching points with the better offense makes the most sense.

Bet Percentage: Kentucky 65%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Florida covers

CFB – (375) Michigan (376) Illinois  Total 43.5
Saturday, October 19 – 3:30 p.m. ET / CBS

The Big Ten has six-ranked teams and these are two of them. One of them will fall out of the ranking with a loss. The Wolverines are coming off a bye, while Illinois is probably still shocked they needed overtime to hold off Purdue, permitting a season-high 536 yards to a 1-5 Boilermakers offense that had hardly been competitive. That shoddy defensive showing by the Fighting Illini probably spooked bettors and the total is up two points to 43.5, still suggesting a defensive contest. Michigan is 10-4 OVER after the first month of the season, the past three years. Update: The total went one more tick to 44. The belief here is whoever controls the tempo, will dictate the total. In this case, look for that to be Illinois. Under coach Bret Bielema, the Illini is 16-5 UNDER as an underdog and 12-3 UNDER after one or more losses against the spread.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 60%, now 85%

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

CFB – (379) New Mexico at (380) Utah State  +2.5
Saturday, October 19 – 4:00 p.m. ET / truTV

The fact this line moved with these two mediocre squads’ sharp money is influenced by New Mexico’s ability to score. Defensively, these two Mountain West clubs allow over 40 PPG, but the Lobos offense averages 35.2 PPG compared to Utah State at just 25 PPG. Coach Bronco Mendenhall’s squad has posted 50 and 52 points in the past two outings and was moved from a Pick to -2.5 at Logan, Utah. This is just the fifth time in the past five seasons the Lobos are a road fave and are 1-3 SU and ATS. Update: Utah State has slid back to +2 in the MWC clash. Going against the public in this one as road favorites scoring 34 or more PPG, against a defensive team allowing 34 or more PPG, after giving up 37 points or more last game in their last outing are 33-8 ATS. The total is 78, which is the highest of the season in the sport.

Bet Percentage: Was New Mexico 56%, now 86%

Doug’s Pick – New Mexico covers

CFB – (399) LSU at (400) Arkansas Total 54.5
Saturday, October 19 – 7:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

This a rugged scheduling spot for LSU after their smallish home upset of Ole Miss in OT and traveling to face Arkansas, who comes in off a bye week. After surrendering 64 points to Oklahoma State and a crummy UAB club, the Razorbacks defense has conceded only 49 points to three good SEC clubs. With the LSU defense holding the Rebels to 23 points in regulation time, the total on this tilt has fallen from 57 to 54.5. The conceptual aspect of a lower score makes sense but both coaches have Over tendencies. Let’s follow the total during the week. Update: We mentioned the two coaches Over tendencies, someone was paying attention and the total is back to 57. In truth, we thought the original number was dead on and liked the Over on the first line movement. Though the coach’s trend towards a larger score, these clubs are 8-4 Under in Fayetteville. Just a lean to go OVER here.

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 70%, now 68% OVER

Doug’s Pick – Lean OVER

CFB – (413) UNLV at (414) Oregon State  +7.5
Saturday, October 19 – 10:00 p.m. ET / CW Network

This takes some getting used to, especially for UNLV football fans. The Rebels are having a great season and are flying up to Corvallis, OR to take on the Beavers. And are not only road favorites but have been moved from -5 to -7.5. Oregon State is coming off three straight winning seasons, but with the demise of the previous Pac-12, their head coach leaving and the shock of playing basically as an independent, the situation in the world of Orange and Black is unsettled. That’s not the case for UNLV with Barry Odom running the football program and doing a masterful job, scoring 40 PPG and winning by 16.2 PPG. Update: We had a feeling this could happen and it did, UNLV has been dropped back to below the key number of seven to -6.5, with heavy action on the Beavers during the week. The best value is gone on Oregon State, however, this is still a team that is 20-3 SU at home recently.

Bet Percentage: Was UNLV 80%, now Oregon State 73%

Doug’s Pick – Oregon State covers

CFB – (419) Nebraska at (420) Indiana -7
Saturday, October 19 – 12:00 p.m. ET / FOX

If there was ever a game that explained how college football is changing in the Big Ten, this is it. Even with the reconfigured conference adding Oregon, the Ducks, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan are the bell cows. That is likely true at the end of the regular season, but this Saturday we have 5-1 Nebraska on the rebound at 6-0 (not a typo) Indiana. The Huskers figured to be improved and are an OT loss away from being undefeated themselves. Words alone cannot describe what first-year coach Curt Cignetti has done. Granted, this was a veteran team coming back, yet, for the Hoosiers to have a perfect record in the second half of October, AND on a 5-0 ATS spurt facing rising expectations is just amazing. Indiana is up from -4.5 to -7 early. Update: Because we’ve reached the latter part of October, this begins the period where Cinderella gets exposed. Indiana has a large defensive edge, while Nebraska has the edge on defense. This is the first pressure game for the Hoosiers. Though we think they will escape, this seems like a three-point outcome either way.

Bet Percentage: Was Indiana 63%, now 53%

Doug’s Pick – Nebraska covers

 CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (23-12 record): Tulane, Oregon State, USF, New Mexico and North Texas

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (20-15 record): N.C. State/California OVER, USC/Maryland OVER, Colo. State/Air Force OVER, Texas State/Old Dominion OVER and Arkansas St./Southern Miss OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.