Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 1

Early Line Moves for NFL Week 1

The lines on all NFL games have been up for months. To get a weekly honest read, that will start next week after everyone has played. Just so you are aware, ALL Free Picks will come on Friday’s update addition.

NFL – (455) Jacksonville at (456) Miami -3
Sunday, September 8 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle each listed as “questionable” for the season opener, Miami has been downgraded from -5 to -3 against Jacksonville. On Monday, Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post reported Dolphins coach Mike McDonald said both players practiced and “had no setbacks”. This is a really big year for Jacksonville and QB Trevor Lawrence to prove their playoff run two years ago was no fluke. The same principles apply to the Fins, who also want to be an AFC contender.

Monday Bet Percentage: Miami 51%

Doug’s Pick – This Friday

NFL – (459) Minnesota at (460) N.Y. Giants +1
Sunday, September 8 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

How bad do the New York Giants have to be that they were flipped from -1 to +1 against Minnesota at home? Coach Brian Daboll is trying to make Daniel Jones a more aggressive passer and the results were mixed at best in the preseason. Sam Darnold is the Minnesota starting QB and though Kevin O’Connell is a strong offensive coach, Darnold is 21-35 in the NFL. O’Connell has stressed for months the Vikings offense will revolve around the run game to set up the pass, which is his way of protecting Darnold. This NFC battle has two coaches whose futures are tied to a pair of 27-year-old quarterbacks, who could improve, but have not shown they will.

Monday Bet Percentage: N.Y. Giants 65%

Doug’s Pick – This Friday

NFL – (463) New England at (464) Cincinnati Total 40.5
Sunday, September 8 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

After two decades of being a model franchise, the New England Patriots have run dry. Poor drafting had dropped New England into the bottom 25% of the league in talent and this figures to be a long season their fans will have to get used to. Cincinnati needs to keep QB Joe Burrow healthy and stop digging a hole for themselves after 0-2 and 1-3 starts the past two years. The Bengals defense continues to be improved and it looks like the offensive line has a chance to be average, which would be its highest rating since Burrow was drafted. The total has dipped from 43 to 40.5, but with the Giants linebacker injuries, watch this week if the total starts to rise.

Monday Bet Percentage: 85% UNDER

Doug’s Pick – This Friday

NFL – (471) Las Vegas at (472) L.A. Chargers  Total 41
Sunday, September 8 – 4:05 p.m. ET / CBS

In this AFC West showdown, the total tumbled from 43.5 to 41. If you have followed the Raiders in August, most experts agree they have among the worst QB combos in the NFL if not the worst in Gardner Minshew and Aiden O’Connell. Las Vegas is going into the season looking to use a lot of 12 personnel (2 RBs) and two tight ends which is likely to limit scoring. With Jim Harbaugh as the Chargers headman, you know running the pigskin will be a priority. That doesn’t suggest he won’t use his best asset, QB Justin Herbert, rather, to utilize him more effectively. Nonetheless, the Bolts don’t appear explosive and the Raiders’ defense could be special, making this line movement appear accurate.

Monday Bet Percentage: 85% UNDER

Doug’s Pick – This Friday

NFL – (473) Washington at (474) Tampa Bay  Total 44 – Sunday, September 8 – 4:25 p.m. ET / FOX

This is one of only two totals that rose more than two points in Week 1, jumping from 41.5 to 44. Washington has talented playmakers like RB Brian Robinson Jr. and receiver Terry McLaurin. Football bettors are trusting rookie QB Jayden Daniels to get the ball to them, along with making plays himself. Baker Mayfield might have a system and a coaching staff that brings out his best skill set. He played well in the second half of last year, under more control with less emotion. New Washington head coach Dan Quinn was brought in to improve the NFL’s weakest defense from a year ago, but it’s not likely to improve that much without playing a game.

Monday Bet Percentage: 80% OVER

Doug’s Pick – This Friday

Get more NFL  and college football lines moves, free picks and betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.

Note: When line moves occur, two aspects drive the numbers to go in different directions from where they started. There has either been a substantial amount of wagers and money to push the oddsmaker’s original release or highly respected bets have been placed by sharp bettor(s).