Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 1 – Update

The lines on all NFL games have been up for months. To get a weekly honest read, that will start next week after everyone has played. Just so you are aware, ALL Free Picks will come on Friday’s update addition.

NFL – (455) Jacksonville at (456) Miami -3
Sunday, September 8 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle each listed as “questionable” for the season opener, Miami has been downgraded from -5 to -3 against Jacksonville. On Monday, Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post reported Dolphins coach Mike McDonald said both players practiced and “had no setbacks”. This is a really big year for Jacksonville and QB Trevor Lawrence to prove their playoff run two years ago was no fluke. The same principles apply to the Fins who also want to be an AFC contender. Update: We’ve seen a buyback to -3.5 on the Dolphins, with reduced juice. Though the betting action has grown on the Dolphins, the sharper money is on Jacksonville.

Bet Percentage: Was Miami 51%, Now 65%

Doug’s Pick – Sorry, Premium Pick

NFL – (459) Minnesota at (460) N.Y. Giants +1
Sunday, September 8 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

How bad do the New York Giants have to be that they were flipped from -1 to +1 against Minnesota at home? Coach Brian Daboll is trying to make Daniel Jones a more aggressive passer and the results were mixed at best in the preseason. Sam Darnold is the Minnesota starting QB and though Kevin O’Connell is a strong offensive coach, Darnold is 21-35 in the NFL. O’Connell has stressed for months the Vikings offense will revolve around the run game to set up the pass, which is his way of protecting Darnold. This NFC battle has two coaches whose futures are tied to a pair of 27-year-old quarterbacks, who could improve but have not shown they will. Update: This is the same with a few offshore books moving the Vikings to -1.5. Jones has to prove he’s 100% healthy and without Saquon Barkley, the Giants offense would seem less balanced.

Bet Percentage: Was N.Y. Giants 65%, Now 57%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Vikings

NFL – (463) New England at (464) Cincinnati Total 40.5
Sunday, September 8 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

After two decades of being a model franchise, the New England Patriots have run dry. Poor drafting had dropped New England into the bottom 25% of the leagues in talent and this figures to be a long season their fans will have to get used to. Cincinnati needs to keep QB Joe Burrow healthy and stop digging a hole for themselves after 0-2 and 1-3 starts the past two years. The Bengals defense continues to be improved and it looks like the offensive line has a chance to be average, which would be its highest rating since Burrow was drafted. The total has dipped from 43 to 40.5, but with the Giants linebacker injuries, watch this week if the total starts to rise. Update: Roughly half the sportsbooks have bumped the total to 41 despite the overwhelming amount of tickets and money on the UNDER. The number looks about right and not sure how much the Patriots will score.

Bet Percentage: Was 85% UNDER, Now 90+%

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

NFL – (471) Las Vegas at (472) L.A. Chargers  Total 41
Sunday, September 8 – 4:05 p.m. ET / CBS

In this AFC West showdown, the total tumbled from 43.5 to 41. If you have followed the Raiders in August, most experts agree they have among the worst QB combos in the NFL if not the worst in Gardner Minshew and Aiden O’Connell. Las Vegas is going into the season looking to use a lot of 12 personnel (2 RBs) and two tight ends which is likely to limit scoring. With Jim Harbaugh as the Chargers headman, you know running the pigskin will be a priority. That doesn’t suggest he won’t use his best asset, QB Justin Herbert, rather, to utilize him more effectively. Nonetheless, the Bolts don’t appear explosive and the Raiders’ defense could be special, making this line movement appear accurate. Update: This total continues to head south, now at 40.5. As we explained, not sure where the touchdowns will come from, and don’t forget the Bolts lost 63-21 late last season in Sin City.

Bet Percentage: Was 85% UNDER, Unchanged

Doug’s Pick – Lean UNDER

NFL – (473) Washington at (474) Tampa Bay  Total 44
Sunday, September 8 – 4:25 p.m. ET / FOX

This is one of only two totals that rose more than two points in Week 1, jumping from 41.5 to 44. Washington has talented playmakers like RB Brian Robinson Jr. and receiver Terry McLaurin. Football bettors are trusting rookie QB Jayden Daniels to get the ball to them, along with making plays himself. Baker Mayfield might have a system and a coaching staff that brings out his best skill set. He played well in the second half of last year, under more control with less emotion. New Washington head coach Dan Quinn was brought in to improve the NFL’s weakest defense from a year ago, but it’s not likely to improve that much without playing a game. Update: This number didn’t hold up well, and backtracked to 42.5 after the initial surge. That is backed by the lowered betting percentages. Are bettors thinking the Commandoes (can’t help myself) QB Daniels might not be as effective as first thought?

Bet Percentage: Was 80% OVER, Now 54%

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

NEW – NFL – (481) N.Y. Jets at (482) San Francisco -4.5
Monday, September 9 – 8:020 p.m. ET / ESPN

As is often the case, the Monday night game doesn’t draw a lot of attention early in the week, particularly for Week 1. This nonconference clash opened with the 49ers at -6 and slowly but surely moved to -4 late Wednesday before starting to climb to its current level. The New York Jets have a better team on the field than last year. But after missing a full season now at 40, is Aaron Rodgers still an elite QB? We have all heard of the – Super Bowl Hangover – and it’s real, with the loser 5-19 ATS in Week 1.

Bet Percentage: Jets 62%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Jets

NFL Top Money ATS Bets (Highest in order): Steelers, Texans and Panthers

NFL Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order): Vikings/Giants UNDER, Cowboys/Browns UNDER and Raiders/Chargers UNDER

Note: When line moves occur, two aspects drive the numbers to go in different directions from where they started. There has either been a substantial amount of wagers and money to push the oddsmaker’s original release or highly respected bets have been placed by sharp bettor(s).

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