Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 10 Update

GamblersWORLD NFL Week 10 Updated Line Moves and Free Picks

The second half of the NFL regular season commences this week and we have fewer line moves and not as much volatility. Make certain to read what is happening in line moves this week and return on Friday for the updates and free picks that are 19-9 the last month. As promised, the update and Free Picks are here!

NFL – (261) N.Y. Giants vs. (262) Carolina +5
Sunday, November 10 – 9:30 a.m. / NFLN

Though Carolina was outgained by 181 yards and lost the turnover battle to New Orleans, they came from behind to upset New Orleans 23-22. That gave the Panthers the same 2-7 record as their Sunday opponent in Germany, the New York Football Giants. Though Big Blue is hardly impressive, they have been moved from -3.5 to -5 against the Panthers. Statistically, this works for New York in almost all facets and they commit fewer turnovers. But who’s crazy about giving this many points with the G-Men? Update: Despite less support as the week went on for New York, the oddsmakers were forced to bump up Big Blue to -6.5. That is one tough number to back New York, but given how bad Carolina is, are they worth a look? Because we consider this a professional site, we will offer professional advise. Pass on the side and bet this game another way like a Chubba Hubbard anytime TD. Just sayin’.

Bet Percentage: Was Giants 66%, now 54%

Doug’s Pick – Official pass

NFL – (263) Buffalo at (264) Indianapolis  Total 46
Sunday, November 10 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

Now what does Indianapolis do after Joe Flacco looked and played like his age at Minnesota? Reports have the Colts sticking with Flacco. Indy should be encouraged about running the ball after Buffalo was continuously gouged for 149 rushing yards at home by Miami. NFL bettors are not convinced the Colts will regularly score points and dropped the total two points to 46. With Buffalo’s offense scoring 95 points in their last three outings, what team is more likely to dictate the tempo in this AFC get-together? Update: The total in this AFC affair came back just a bit to 46.5. If you look at the two teams with their coach’s, the circumstance favors a Buffalo Under and Indianapolis with the Over. We will follow the Bills Sean McDermott who is 23-7 UNDER in road games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 75%, now 73%

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

NFL – (269) Atlanta at (270) New Orleans +3.5
Sunday, November 10 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

On a seven-game losing streak after an exciting 2-0 start, New Orleans ownership had seen enough of coach Dennis Allen and fired him. The Saints also suffered several injuries in their disgusting loss to Carolina and the status of several players is up in the air as of Tuesday afternoon. Despite less than overwhelming public opinion on the NFC South showdown, the Falcons have flown from a Pick to -3.5. We will watch how this plays out but obviously, nobody early is looking for a positive bump on the Saints with a coaching change. Update: Zero line movement as the betting masses are satisfied. Maybe something changes for New Orleans and they cover. But until they prove otherwise it seems best to pass on the Saints. Atlanta on the ML seems like wisest play, so we’ll just lean with the Falcons and hope to not be a fish and get hooked by the hook.

Bet Percentage: Was Falcons 61%, now 71%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Falcons cover

NFL – (273) San Francisco at (274) Tampa Bay  Total 51
Sunday, November 10 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

In the first part of the week, this conflict was far and away the biggest line movement on totals, with this NFC battle jumping from 47.5 to 51 points. Baker Mayfield showed Monday he can still make plays when lacking stars on the perimeter. What sets the table for Tampa Bay is their #10 rushing offense. As long as they stay in the game, the Buccaneers can commit to the run which opens up the pass. If it turns out true the Bucs can score, their defense is #30 in total defense and #28 in points allowed. San Francisco coming off a bye week should be refreshed and be able to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s stop troops. Update: A full point retraction for this west Florida tilt to 50. We have info that shows the Under the better side, however, the expected return of Christian McCaffrey should ignite the 49ers and coming off the bye as mentioned is positive development. The Niners are 5-0 OVER versus rushing defenses allowing 4.5 or more yards a carry.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 88%, now 57%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (281) N.Y. Jets at (282) Arizona  Total 46
Sunday, November 10 – 4:25 p.m. ET / CBS

The Jets still think they can reach the playoffs, while Arizona is in first place in the NFC West, neither of those two things make sense. Where the early betting action is on this nonconference clash is the total, lifted from 44 to 46. This could be a function of one clear edge the Cardinals have. The Redbirds are #7 in rushing as RB James Conner always runs hard and QB Kyler Murray adds the wild card element. Though Gang Green is #4 in total defense, they permit 132 yards rushing a game (#21). New York has given up 25 PPG in their last three skirmishes, which opens the door to thinking more points could be scored. Update: This conflict’s total was elevated again, now at 46.5. Though we follow the logic of a higher-scoring game, we won’t ignore this about the Cardinals. Home teams after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 27-4 UNDER for this rare situation.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 89%, now 78%

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

NEW -NFL – (285) Miami at (286) L.A. Rams -1
Monday, November 11 – 8:15 p.m. ET / ESPN

Though the Rams have the better record and are the better coached team, they have tumbled from -3 to -1 against Miami. The Dolphins have changed into more of a running team, thanks great blocking from their offensive line, averaging 170 YPG and moved up to #8 overall. Los Angeles has improved in stopping the run, yet is still #24. A review of that improvement has come with a cost of allowing more passing yards in a few instances. We understand the reasoning for the line move, but cannot buy in because road teams on the ML, in a game involving two poor defensive teams (23-27 PPG), after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games, are 6-20 SU, losing by 3.9 PPG.

Bet Percentage: Rams 55%

Doug’s Pick – Rams cover

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (11-15-1 record): 49ers, Lions and Eagles

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (14-13 Record): Steelers/Commanders OVER, Titans/ Chargers UNDER and Patriots/Bears UNDER

Doug Upstone has been a decorated handicapper since 2003 and a sports betting writer since 2005. You can find Doug’s award-winning picks right here.