Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 11

Early Line Moves for NFL Week 11

We push on to Week 11 and totals continue to move dramatically as they have all season early in the week. Though we had line movement for the side and total for the Jaguars vs Lions matchup, we passed because the look-ahead line included Jacksonville playing QB Trevor Lawrence, who missed last week’s contest and is “questionable” as of Tuesday this week. Return on Friday all the updates and Free Picks (20-13 L5 weeks).

NFL – (451) Green Bay at (452) Chicago +6, Total 41
Sunday, November 107– 1:00 p.m. / FOX

It has been a wild few days in the Windy City concerning the Chicago Bears. The city wants everyone fired and completely new owners after losing badly to New England at home. Football bettors do not like the Bears either, who moved from +2.5 to +6 against the hated rival Green Bay Packers. And they are not looking for QB Caleb Williams to have a big game, dropping the total four points to 41. With Green Bay off a bye and 15-5 SU and ATS at Soldier Field since 2005 (UNDER 11-9), it’s hard to argue with bettors early on.

Early Bet Percentage: Packers 83% & UNDER 55%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Packers -7 and Total of 41 – Back Friday

NFL – (263) Cleveland at (264) New Orleans  Total 44.5
Sunday, November 17 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

The total climbed from 42 to 44.5 and it is not abundantly clear why. Cleveland’s off a bye, yet is averaging 16.4 PPG this season. The New Orleans defense is beatable, but do the Browns have the weapons to exploit them? The Saints are averaging 17 PPG since registering 91 points in their initial two outings, which feels like three seasons ago. The Cleveland defense is nothing special at #16 in total defense and permitting 23.7 PPG. This is a figure to watch this week for further movement.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 54%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total of 43 – Back Friday

NFL – (457) Pittsburgh at (458) Baltimore  Total 48.5
Sunday, November 17 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

While many thought Russell Wilson was washed up after his showing in Denver (guilty here), he revitalized the Pittsburgh offense and is among the reasons why the Steelers are 8-2.  Despite Pittsburgh being #2 in points allowed (16.2 PPG) in the NFL, this AFC North total has risen like baked bread to 48.5, four full points from the original starting position. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense and defense offer contributing factors as well. Strangely enough, this is the Steelers’ first division encounter of the year and they are 7-1 UNDER vs. the Ravens the last four years.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 93%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total of 47 – Back Friday

NFL – (467) Atlanta at (468) Denver -2
Sunday, November 17 – 4:05 p.m. ET / FOX

With no major injuries showing on the Atlanta Falcons reports, it is eyebrow-raising to see Denver flip from +2.5 to -2. One could make the argument Atlanta should never have been favored and no question that the Falcons losing a very winnable game at New Orleans and the Broncos doing the same thing at Kansas City has impacted the line movement. Nonetheless, if Younghoe Koo doesn’t miss three field goals after his Atlanta teammates out-gained New Orleans by 103 yards on the road, at best, Denver is -1. Stay tuned.

Early Bet Percentage: Broncos 54%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Denver -1 – Back Friday

NFL – (471) Cincinnati at (472) L.A. Chargers  Total 46
Sunday, November 17 – 8:20 p.m. ET / NBC

As good as the Chargers’ defense is, ranked #1 in fewest points given up (13.1), the power of Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ #26 defense in points surrendered (26.2) is more overwhelming. The Cincy dual threat combo of scoring and conceding points has shoved the total to 47 from 43 on the look-ahead line. Tempo will dictate the totals outcome with the Bengals 7-3 OVER and the Bolts 7-2 UNDER.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 90%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total of 44 – Back Friday

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