Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 12

Early Line Moves for NFL Week 12

We are starting to see the haves and have-nots emerge as we head toward the end of November. Nevertheless, bettors are finding more value early in the week in moving lines on totals than sides. See you back here Friday for all the updates and Free Picks (23-16 L6 weeks).

NFL – (261) New England at (262) Miami  Total 46 
Sunday, November 24– 1:00 p.m. / CBS

The Dolphins offense has gotten healthier with Tua back. It might not be at last year’s level, but all the signs are positive. Miami is still only averaging 18.1 PPG, yet in their last four contests, the Fins are 27.7 PPG and climbing. This would seem the key driver in the total soaring from 43.5 to 46. The question becomes what will New England bring to the party? QB Drake Maye has added some juice with the Patriots at 23.2 PPG in four starts. Miami’s defense, with players back from injury, has given up 34 total points in the last two games, so will a higher total work?

Early Bet Percentage: UNDER 61%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rating Total of 41– Back Friday

NFL – (263) Tennessee at (264) Houston  Total 41   
Sunday, November 24 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

Monday was a feel-good win for Houston in whipping Dallas. Not sure if it was a true confidence-builder, particularly for the offense. Joe Mixon had an exceptional game, yet the passing game was still off-kilter and C.J. Stroud isn’t completely comfortable in the pocket behind his reworked offensive line. Tennessee’s offense is going nowhere, #28 in scoring and #25 in yards gained. The total has gone backward from 43 to 41. That figure is still higher than three of the past four battles between these AFC South combatants, who are on a 4-0 UNDER and 5-1 the past three years.

Early Bet Percentage: UNDER 59%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rating Total of 41– Back Friday

NFL – (263) Denver at (264) Las Vegas +5 
Sunday, November 24 – 4:05 p.m. ET / CBS

Two seasons ago Denver was a mess and Las Vegas was a rudderless .500 team. Fast forward to today and the Raiders are worse off than they were then and talent evaluators would tell you half of their 22 starters would rank last by positions in the AFC West. The Broncos went and fired a Super Bowl-winning coach in Sean Payton and he retooled them into a squad that could make the playoffs with a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix. This is obvious to NFL bettors and they pushed Denver from -3 to -5 point road favorites. The Broncos have not been this big a road fave since the 2022 season opener at Seattle (-6).

Early Bet Percentage: Denver 91%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rating Denver -4 – Back Friday

NFL – (271) Philadelphia at (272) L.A. Rams  Total 49.5 
Sunday, November 24 – 8:20 p.m. ET / NBC

This Sunday night total going up doesn’t pass the smell test. The Eagles and Rams skirmish was sent out at 48 and rose to 49.5. We put together various combinations of Philadelphia playing all games, on the road and their past three contests and the highest total we reach is 45 points on average. When perusing the Rams figures in similar situations, the largest total is 47 points which came in their previous three contests. So, what is driving this high of a number, and will we see this tumble by Friday?

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 75%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rating Total of 47 – Back Friday

NFL – (273) Baltimore at (274) L.A. Chargers  Total 50.5 
Monday, November 25 – 8:15 p.m. ET / ABC/ESPN

SoFi Stadium is busy with a pair of marquee matchups this weekend. The second one is Monday with Baltimore still probably thought of as the better team at 7-4, over the 7-3 L.A. Chargers. This is the – Harbaugh Bowl – with the brothers opposing each other, which makes for a good headline if not terribly important. What looks important is the total sent from 48 to 50.5. Even after tallying only 16 points last week, the Ravens still are the #2 scoring offense at 30.5 PPG. The Chargers have the #1 scoring defense (14.5 PPG), which makes for fun viewing. Did the Bolts scoring 34 points and conceding 27 last week alter the total in this affair?

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 64%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rating Total of 48– Back Friday

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