Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 12 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 12 Update

By Doug Upstone

We are starting to see the haves and have-nots emerge as we head toward the end of November. Nevertheless, bettors are finding more value early in the week in moving lines on totals than sides. We are back with all the updates and Free Picks (23-16 L6 weeks).

NEW – NFL – (257) Dallas at (258) Washington  Total 45 – Sunday, November 24 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

In this NFC East rivalry, given the state of the Cowboys, Washington looks like a good bet to reach 30 points at home. The hometown fans would relish that against Dallas. The Boys have surrendered 34.4 PPG in their five-game losing streak. If that is true, that suggests Copper Rush and just maybe Trey Lance has to hit at least 15 points and the Commanders would chip in the rest. Dallas is at 15.6 PPG the last six times they’ve taken the field. No doubt a Cowboys turnover could ruin a lower-scoring affair, still, when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and a club like the Cowboys is off five or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second half of the season, the UNDER is 29-7.

Bet Percentage: OVER 53%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

NFL – (261) New England at (262) Miami  Total 46 – Sunday, November 24– 1:00 p.m. / CBS

The Dolphins offense has gotten healthier with Tua back. It might not be at last year’s level, but all the signs are positive. Miami is still only averaging 18.1 PPG, yet in their last four contests, the Fins are 27.7 PPG and climbing. This would seem the key driver in the total soaring from 43.5 to 46. The question becomes what will New England bring to the party? QB Drake Maye has added some juice with the Patriots at 23.2 PPG in four starts. Miami’s defense, with players back from injury, has given up 34 total points in the last two games, so will a higher total work? Update: This number has largely not moved all week with a couple of half-point fluctuations to 46.5, which quickly returned to 46. Let’s go this way in the AFC East encounter. Play UNDER on road teams like the Pats when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, who force one or fewer turnovers a game, after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. (31-9 UNDER)

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 61%, now 53% OVER

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

NFL – (263) Tennessee at (264) Houston  Total 41  – Sunday, November 24 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

Monday was a feel-good win for Houston in whipping Dallas. Not sure if it was a true confidence-builder, particularly for the offense. Joe Mixon had an exceptional game, yet the passing game was still off-kilter and C.J. Stroud isn’t completely comfortable in the pocket behind his reworked offensive line. Tennessee’s offense is going nowhere, #28 in scoring and #25 in yards gained. The total has gone backward from 43 to 41. That figure is still higher than three of the past four battles between these AFC South combatants, who are on a 4-0 UNDER and 5-1 the past three years. Update: This total has continued to dwindle, with the books basically split at either 40 or 40.5. The Titans are averaging 15.1 PPG in their last half-dozen starts. For an Over, that would require the Texans to reach 26 points. Something they’ve only done once in the past six meetings. A very slight lean to go under the total with Houston 5-0 UNDER in home games after gaining 6.5 or more yards a play in their previous game. (Please note, the average total score is 39.8 points)

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 59%, now 70%

Doug’s Pick – Slight lean UNDER

NFL – (263) Denver at (264) Las Vegas +5 – Sunday, November 24 – 4:05 p.m. ET / CBS

Two seasons ago Denver was a mess and Las Vegas was a rudderless .500 team. Fast forward to today and the Raiders are worse off than they were then and talent evaluators would tell you half of their 22 starters would rank last by positions in the AFC West. The Broncos went and found a Super Bowl-winning coach in Sean Payton and he retooled them into a squad that could make the playoffs with a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix. This is obvious to NFL bettors and they pushed Denver from -3 to -5 point road favorites. The Broncos have not been this big a road fave since the 2022 season opener at Seattle (-6). Update: The Broncos have been ridden to -6 in Sin City. This seems like a likely outcome, nevertheless, the Raiders are 8-1 SU versus Denver and 8-3-1 ATS at home since last year and can cover.

Bet Percentage: Was Denver 91%, now 77%

Doug’s Pick – Raiders cover

NFL – (271) Philadelphia at (272) L.A. Rams  Total 49.5 – Sunday, November 24 – 8:20 p.m. ET / NBC

This Sunday night total going up doesn’t pass the smell test. The Eagles and Rams skirmish was sent out at 48 and rose to 49.5. We put together various combinations of Philadelphia playing all games, on the road and their past three contests and the highest total we reach is 45 points on average. When perusing the Rams figures in similar situations, the largest total is 47 points which came in their previous three contests. So, what is driving this high of a number, and will we see this tumble by Friday? Update: This NFC total has reversed a smidge to 49. It would be pretty easy to make an argument for the UNDER based on the Rams’ offense and the Eagles’ defensive numbers. Yet, something about this confrontation feels like touchdowns scored. Tap in Philadelphia is 6-0 OVER away off two or more consecutive Unders and L.A. is 5-0 OVER vs. defenses allowing 5.7 or fewer passing yards per attempt in the second half of the season.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 75%, now 70%

Doug’s Pick – Lean OVER

NFL – (273) Baltimore at (274) L.A. Chargers  Total 50.5 – Monday, November 25 – 8:15 p.m. ET / ABC/ESPN

SoFi Stadium is busy with a pair of marquee matchups this weekend. The second one is Monday with Baltimore still probably thought of as the better team at 7-4, over the 7-3 L.A. Chargers. This is the – Harbaugh Bowl – with the brothers opposing each other, which makes for a good headline if not terribly important. What looks important is the total sent from 48 to 50.5. Even after tallying only 16 points last week, the Ravens still are the #2 scoring offense at 30.5 PPG. The Chargers have the #1 scoring defense (14.5 PPG), which makes for fun viewing. Did the Bolts scoring 34 points and conceding 27 last week alter the total in this affair? Update: The was lifted a half-point to 51 where it has remained for days. If you look at what quarterbacks the Chargers have faced, other than Mahomes and Burrow, it’s a motley crew. Burrow had the receivers and you know Lamar Jackson does too for Baltimore. One has to ask yourself what seems more likely, 24-23/27-23, or does 28-24 work? We’re inclined to think a few field goals will be kicked that limits scoring and the Chargers are 5-0 UNDER Chargers games versus teams allowing 350 or more YPG.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 64%, now 84%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (14-18-1 record): Commanders, Texans and Chiefs

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (18-15 Record): Buccaneers/Giants UNDER, Ravens/Chargers OVER and Titans/Texans UNDER