Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 13 Update

GamblersWORLD NFL Week 13 Updated Line Moves and Free Picks

It’s Thanksgiving weekend underway and the NFL is a big part of the festivities. With a full slate of 16 games, for Line Moves we are dialed into the Sunday/Monday action. We hope you had a great Thanksgiving! We have all the updates, free picks, and loads of information for you!  (25-19 L7 weeks). For those curious, the 49ers/Bills have large line moves on the side and total, but that is snow related.

NFL – (461) Tennessee at (462) Washington -5.5
Sunday, December 1 – 1:00 p.m. / CBS

After a completely unexpected start at 7-2, Washington has regressed with three consecutive defeats. While some say Jaylen Daniels is regressing, from this spot, he looks more physically worn down and is finding NFL defensive coordinators are diabolical with what he is seeing today compared to a month ago. Tennessee thoroughly outplayed Houston on the road last week in the upset and QB Will Levis finally had a game with more positives than negatives. Early influential football bettors are souring on the Commanders a bit, which helped support dropping them from -7 to -5.5. We’re curious where this goes closer to game time. Update:  Typically, winning teams on 0-3 SU and ATS runs are a good bet in their next outing. While it’s a cliché, with both teams regularly turning the ball over, whoever takes care of the pigskin better covers. As much as we’d like to take the points with the Titans, they have not covered two in a row since the middle of 2022.

Bet Percentage: Was Commanders 53%, now 70%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Commanders

NFL – (469) Houston at (470) Jacksonville +5
Sunday, December 1 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

Jacksonville returns from its bye week and the status quo has remained. The Jaguars are 3-14 since last season’s collapse. Trevor Lawrence is incredibly inconsistent, the Jaguars are last in the NFL in pre-snap motion which makes their offense easier to read and they are #32 in the NFL in passing yards allowed. Even with all this negativity, Jacksonville has slid two points to +5 against rival Houston. The Texans’ offensive line has C.J. Stroud spooked and the defense might rank #5 in yards surrendered, but they are #15 in points allowed. But who feels comfortable backing the Jags? Update: There is sharp money all over encounter and Jacksonville is down to +3.5 with Lawrence now expected to start. The value is with Houston at this point, but is it the right way to wager? It might be wise guy action, but it’s hard to overlook road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, off an upset loss as a home favorite, against an opponent off a road loss, are 26-5 ATS. Texans find a way.

Bet Percentage: Was Texans 55%, now 63%
Doug’s Pick – Texans cover

NFL – (471) Arizona at (472) Minnesota  Total 45
Sunday, December 1 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

This is a big game for both these NFC teams. As great and dominant as Detroit has played, Minnesota is just one game behind in the NFC North standings and is lurking. Arizona lost at Seattle last Sunday and those two are tied atop the NFC West. The lookahead line opened at 48 and despite two-thirds of the money and nearly the same amount of bets on the Over, the total as of Tuesday afternoon is 45. The Cardinals have played three straight Unders and the Vikings are 3-1 Under in their four-game win streak. Does 45 points stick or go back up? Update: Though the total has not budged the betting has caught up to the number, with bet percentages now on the same side. Arizona has quietly given up only 14.6 PPG in their past five encounters and Minnesota for the season has conceded 17.9 PPG and 17 PPG at home. The Vikings are 9-4 UNDER at home since last year and 5-0 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 67%, now 62% UNDER
Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

NFL – (473) Seattle at (474) N.Y. Jets +2
Sunday, December 1 – 8:20 p.m. ET / FOX

If any team had a more appropriate alternative nickname, it’s the New York Jets. This club is often referred as “Gang Green” and this seems right for a club that has spoiled fans’ expectations at an unsightly 3-8 SU and ATS. The Jets owner would probably fire everyone if he could, but that’s not possible. Seattle is tied for first place in the NFC West after their victory over Arizona and that has NFL bettors pounding them. The Seahawks have been flipped from +1 to -2 over the Flyboys. The Jets team has shown little gumption, will they this week? Update: Fascinating line movement on a contest that doesn’t figure to attract a lot of eyeballs. As noted, the Jets opened as faves, went to underdogs and as of Friday afternoon are a Pick. We understand that Seattle is off a big division home win and has to travel cross-country to face an uninspiring foe. On the vibe scale, the Seahawks have everything to play for and the Jets have already shown they are collecting paychecks. We’ll side with the more engaged group.

Bet Percentage: Was Seahawks 82%, now 74%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Seahawks cover

NEW – NFL – (475) Tampa Bay at (476) Carolina  Total 46.5
Sunday, December 1 – 4:05 p.m. ET / FOX

This NFC South total was sent out at 43.5 and has zoomed to 46.5. Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay average 31 PPG on the road, with Carolina conceding 30 PPG in Charlotte, which is almost two-thirds of the way to the adjusted total. Bryce Young and the Panthers offense is no longer painful to watch at 23.3 PPG in their previous trio of trips to the gridiron. As it turns out 23 PPG is what the Buccaneers have allowed the opposition to score at their home. Though both squads have rather definitive under trends and are 13-6 under in North Carolina, we’ll call for a wider-open affair and side with a higher score.

Bet Percentage: OVER 55%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (14-21-1 record): Broncos, Seahawks and Commanders

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (20-16 Record): Seahawks/Jets UNDER, Colts/Patriots OVER and Titans/Texans UNDER

Doug Upstone has been a decorated handicapper since 2003 and a sports betting writer since 2005. You can find Doug’s award-winning picks right here.