Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 14 Update

Doug Upstone / December 7, 2024 / NFL Betting Advice

Gamblers World Line Moves and Free NFL picks for Week 14

NFL players on teams in contention to make the playoffs frequently talk about the season starting after Thanksgiving. For NFL bettors, we start Week 1 and now make our push for exceptional profits. Here are the updated Line Moves along with free picks (29-20 L8 weeks).

NEW – NFL – (125) Jacksonville at (126) Tennessee Total 40
Sunday, December 8 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

The total slid from 42 to 40 points in this AFC South showdown. Offensively, these teams are horrible #28 and #29 in total offense and Jacksonville despite having two No. 1 draft picks at QB is #25 in scoring. Tennessee is #28 in points having a QB who on a draft workout at Kentucky showed he could throw a football 50 yards when on both knees on social media. One problem, when you have both knees grounded, the play is dead. So, what will happen? The Jags are #30 in points allowed and the Titans despite ranking #2 in total defense are #27 points given up. We’ll say both QBs have success moving the ball and Will Levis continues his Jameis Winston imitation, giving both teams a chance to score and go OVER 40.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 53%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (129) Cleveland at (130) Pittsburgh Total 44
Sunday, December 8 – 1:00 p.m. / CBS

The total was elevated significantly from 40.5 to 44 after Cleveland’s Monday shootout with Denver. The number reason? Jameis Winston, who can help both teams raise their score as we witnessed in Monday’s incredible (referring to good and bad) performance. Let’s also not lose sight of how overrated the Browns’ defense is. Cleveland is 8-1 OVER playing against a team with a winning record on the road. Update – A modest buyback to 43.5 across all sportsbooks. Not sure why with the Browns 5-0 OVER as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and the Steelers 6-0 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record. Nonetheless, this will make you slam on the brakes for a higher score. With the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and a team like Cleveland is off a road loss, against an opponent off a road win scoring 31 or more points, the UNDER is 23-1. Gulp!

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 87%, now 83%
Doug’s Pick – Lean UNDER

NFL – (135) Seattle at (136) Arizona Total 44.5
Sunday, December 8 – 4:05 p.m. ET / CBS

In the NFC West, this skirmish feels like a must-win for both clubs. For Arizona, to get back into a tie with Seattle for first place and the Seahawks attempting to open more distance in the division. Pro football bettors are more focused on the total, lowering it by two points to 44.5. An interesting take by the oddsmakers, who made the number the same as the closing line between these clubs two weeks ago at 46.5, which the Seahawks won 16-6. The Cardinals are on a 5-1-2 UNDER run and Seattle is 5-1 UNDER of late. Update – The adjusted total has passed the smell test to this point, with many offshore books now at 44. We are going to take a bite on the direction of the line move knowing the Redbirds are 5-0 UNDER facing a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) and the Seahawks are at 6-0 UNDER away vs. a defense allowing a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the second half of the season.

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 61%, now 66%
Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

NFL – (139) Chicago at (140) San Francisco -4
Sunday, December 8 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

Chicago has lost six in a row and fired their head coach after the Bears’ Thanksgiving debacle in Detroit. San Francisco is all but out of the playoff race at 5-7, having dropped their past three outings by a combined score of 93-37. With running backs Christian McCaffery and Jordan Mason done for the season, those placing bets have more faith in the Bears at this juncture, as they have tumbled from +6 to +4. Somebody will get in the win column on Sunday, but who feels good about backing either club? Update – A couple of books have dipped their toe into 3.5, with everyone else still at 4. The Bears should have at least won two times in their losing streak and could be at least 3-3 during this stretch. A new coach adds juice while the Niners are playing without energy.

Bet Percentage: Was Bears 83%, unchanged
Doug’s Pick – Bears covers

NFL – (141) L.A. Chargers at (142) Kansas City -4
Sunday, December 8 – 8:20 p.m. ET / NBC

Kansas City might have the best record in the NFL at 11-1, but more serious fans wonder if they are like a cat (Chiefs in this case) that has nine lives. Kansas City at best has one left for this season, if that. Though Andy Reid’s team was scuffling at the point last year, they were just getting beat not pulling out inconceivable victories. The sense is K.C. will run out of luck at some points and the Chiefs are down to -4 at home against the L.A. Chargers after opening at -5.5. With Kansas City not having a high-powered offense, the league’s #1 scoring defense from L.A. will look to contain and possibly upset their rival. Update – No movement on the 4, signaling the marketplace is satisfied for now. While we agree K.C. has issues despite an 11-1 record, the Chargers couldn’t stop Baltimore’s offense and they only beat Atlanta because Kirk Cousins was pathetic, as the Bolts only gained 41 yards in the second half. Chiefs at this price seem like a buy-low number.

Bet Percentage: Was Chargers 64%, now 67%
Doug’s Pick – Chiefs cover

NFL – (143) Cincinnati at (144) Dallas Total 49.5
Monday, December 9 – 8:15 p.m. ET / ABC/ESPN

From a record perspective, this is not a particularly good nonconference clash, nevertheless, it sure feels like we could have a repeat of last Monday’s wild shootout. This conflict opened at 44.5 and has zoomed to 49. What’s fun to think about is this line movement is all public-driven, with 90 percent of the tickets on the Over, while the money is on the Under. It’s hard not to think we won’t have scoring with these teams #26 and #27 in total defense and Dallas #29 in points allowed with Cincinnati #31. Update – Another number that seems to have topped out after hard early wagering. Sharps have made some noise thinking a total moving five points is too much and altered the bet percentages. From that perspective, it’s hard to argue, but the Cincy defense plays like they have two fewer players on the field and it’s not unrealistic to think both teams reach 27 or more points. When the total is 49.5 or higher, a bad team (25% to 40%) is playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season, the OVER is 26-4.