Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 15

Early Line Moves for NFL Week 15

This week, several very large line moves occurred in the first part of the week. The general indicators are most will hold up. Return on Friday to find out and watch for the free plays.

NFL – (463) Baltimore at (464) N.Y. Giants +15
Sunday, December 15– 1:00 p.m. / CBS

The New York Giants have replaced Carolina as the worst team in the NFL. This is shown by the fact Big Blue opened as a 12-point home underdog and they leaped all the way to +15! Again, this is a home game for the G-Men, who should have beaten New Orleans last week in New Jersey. The Ravens are coming off a bye and #5 in the AFC playoff picture and would undoubtedly want to win their last four contests. But can anyone truly want to lay this many points in the NFL, on the road to boot?

Early Bet Percentage: Ravens 93%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Ravens -13.5 – Back Friday

NFL – (467) Dallas at (468) Carolina -2.5
Sunday, December 15 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

Dallas on the look-ahead line was -2. With the Cowboys’ unfathomable loss Monday to Cincinnati and Carolina playing better and Oh so close to taking the lead late against Philadelphia on the road, it’s the Panthers now favored at -2.5. If this holds, this will be the first time in 23 games Carolina will be favored. Frankly, not certain how you back either team no matter the price, but it makes for fascinating fodder.

Early Bet Percentage: Panthers 53%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Panthers -3.5 – Back Friday

NFL – (469) Pittsburgh at (470) Philadelphia  Total 42.5
Sunday, December 15 – 4:25 p.m. ET / FOX

With rare exceptions over the years, we have avoided games that involved an injury that affected the side or total. Now and again, something quirky pops up that alters our position and this Keystone State battle fits the bill. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said WR George Pickens is unlikely to play with a hamstring injury and described him as “very doubtful”. The total has tumbled from 45 to 42.5 and it’s hard to imagine Pickens is worth 2.5 points. The whole situation is further complicated by percentages heavily on the OVER. Is sharp action that strong to lower this number this much? Stay tuned.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 87%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total of 43.5 – Back Friday

NFL – (471) Buffalo at (472) Detroit   Total 54.5
Sunday, December 15 – 4:25 p.m. ET / CBS

If the Steelers/Eagles total is perplexing, the Detroit at Buffalo total is not. This nonconference clash shot up like Bitcoin from 51.5 to 54.5. If it reaches 55 or higher, this would be the highest total in any game since the Bills/Chiefs back in October of 2022 (closed 55.5). The matchup features the Top 2 offenses in the NFL, both over 30 PPG and each surrendered more than 30 points last week along with having a few issues. Here is an intriguing counterpoint. Buffalo is 9-1 UNDER on the road when playing against a top-level team with a win percentage of 75% or higher.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 94%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total of 56 – Back Friday

NFL – (477) New England at (478) Arizona -4.5
Sunday, December 15 – 4:25 p.m. ET / CBS

Have to admit to checking Arizona’s injury report for them dropping 2.5 points at home against New England. It is true the Redbirds have lost three straight, but this is a severe drop in class after two with Seattle and Minnesota. New England is 4-2 ATS in their last six tries, thus, -7 might be too high. If one likes the Cardinals, this feels like a – buy-low – spot. Let’s check on Friday and see where we are.

Early Bet Percentage: Cardinals 64%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Cardinals -6 – Back Friday

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