Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 15 Update

Doug Upstone / December 14, 2024 / NFL Betting Advice

Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 15 Update

By Doug Upstone

This week, several very large line moves occurred in the first part of the week. The general indicators are most will hold up. We are back with all the updates and free plays (30-25).

NFL – (463) Baltimore at (464) N.Y. Giants +15
Sunday, December 15– 1:00 p.m. / CBS

The New York Giants have replaced Carolina as the worst team in the NFL. This is shown by the fact Big Blue opened as a 12-point home underdog and they leaped all the way to +15! Again, this is a home game for the G-Men, who should have beaten New Orleans last week in New Jersey. The Ravens are coming off a bye and #5 in the AFC playoff picture and would undoubtedly want to win their last four contests. But can anyone truly want to lay this many points in the NFL, on the road to boot? Update: This has climbed as high as 16.5 before settling back to 16 as of Friday afternoon. Truthfully, the best thing to do is Pass, but if you must play, Baltimore is just 2-10 ATS the last three years as a favorite of -7.5 or higher, including 0-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite.

Bet Percentage: Was Ravens 93%, now 90%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Giants to cover

NEW – NFL – (465) Kansas City at (466) Cleveland
Sunday, December 15 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

With Kansas City on a 0-7 ATS downturn, football bettors are not trusting them and they have dropped from -5.5 to -4 at Cleveland. Nobody is suggesting taking the Browns on the money line, though every possible break has gone the Chiefs way and at some point, luck will go against them. What the outcome feels like is how much you trust QB Jameis Winston to do more positive more positive or negative things. Since taking over as the starter, Winston is 2-1 SU and ATS at home and 0-3 SU and ATS on the road. It would only make sense Winston and Cleveland not only cover but wins at home because that’s what he does.

Bet Percentage: Chiefs 61%

Doug’s Pick – Browns cover

NFL – (467) Dallas at (468) Carolina -2.5
Sunday, December 15 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

Dallas on the look-ahead line was -2. With the Cowboys’ unfathomable loss Monday to Cincinnati and Carolina playing better and Oh so close to taking the lead late against Philadelphia on the road, it’s the Panthers now favored at -2.5. If this holds, this will be the first time in 23 games Carolina will be favored. Frankly, not certain how you back either team no matter the price, but it makes for fascinating fodder. Update: It is easy enough to surmise the Cowboys might not show up. They have zero to play for, it feels like change is coming and they are playing an equally bad opponent. Yet, since October 2016, Carolina has been 0-20 ATS as a favorite facing a team below .400 on the season. This feels like do I want to be punched in the face by some left or right-handed person? Both will hurt, but which hurts less?

Bet Percentage: Was Panthers 53%, now Cowboys 51%

Doug’s Pick – The slightest of leans, Panthers cover

NFL – (469) Pittsburgh at (470) Philadelphia Total 42.5
Sunday, December 15 – 4:25 p.m. ET / FOX

With rare exceptions over the years, we have avoided games that involved an injury that affected the side or total. Now and again, something quirky pops up that alters our position and this Keystone State battle fits the bill. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said WR George Pickens is unlikely to play with a hamstring injury and described him as “very doubtful”. The total has tumbled from 45 to 42.5 and it’s hard to imagine Pickens is worth 2.5 points. The whole situation is further complicated by percentages heavily on the OVER. Is sharp action that strong to lower this number this much? Stay tuned. Update: We have seen a little buyback to 43, with the bet percentages now in line with the marketplace. We are going to disagree with the line movement with the Eagles 9-1 OVER at home after covering the spread in two out of their last three games and the Steelers 5-0 OVER after playing a game at home.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 87%, now UNDER 63%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (471) Buffalo at (472) Detroit Total 54.5
Sunday, December 15 – 4:25 p.m. ET / CBS

If the Steelers/Eagles total is perplexing, the Detroit at Buffalo total is not. This nonconference clash shot up like Bitcoin from 51.5 to 54.5. If it reaches 55 or higher, this would be the highest total in any game since the Bills/Chiefs back in October of 2022 (closed 55.5). The matchup features the Top 2 offenses in the NFL, both over 30 PPG and each surrendered more than 30 points last week along with having a few issues. Here is an intriguing counterpoint. Buffalo is 9-1 UNDER on the road when playing against a top-level team with a win percentage of 75% or higher. Update: The total has been unchanged since Tuesday, though there was the expected drop in one-sided wagering. We are sticking with the initial belief of this contest. Buffalo is 5-0 OVER away when playing against a top-level team with a win percentage of 75% or higher in the second half of the season. And Detroit is 9-0 OVER after a win by three or less points. Both angles point to 57 points or higher.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 94%, now 74%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (477) New England at (478) Arizona -4.5
Sunday, December 15 – 4:25 p.m. ET / CBS

Have to admit to checking Arizona’s injury report for them dropping 2.5 points at home against New England. It is true the Redbirds have lost three straight, but this is a severe drop in class after two with Seattle and Minnesota. New England is 4-2 ATS in their last six tries, thus, -7 might be too high. If one likes the Cardinals, this feels like a – buy-low – spot. Let’s check on Friday and see where we are. Update: It seems common sense kicked in and Arizona is back to -6. We’ve read where New England plays hard, yet, they are still losing and 4-7 ATS of late. With the total at 46, the Pats are 0-8 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since last year.