Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 16

Early Line Moves for NFL Week 16

We have heavy action on totals to start the week. We will be back on Friday with all the updates and free plays.

NFL – (105) Pittsburgh at (106) Baltimore -6.5, Total 45
Saturday, December 21– 4:30 p.m. / FOX

A huge game for these bitter rivals. Pittsburgh wraps up the AFC North with a victory or, Baltimore moves into a first-place tie at 10-5, with Steelers holding the tiebreaker. Though another slipup the Ravens could charge ahead if they close without losing. Football bettors are sensing a Baltimore surge and lifted them from 5 to 6.5-point home favorites with the total down two points to 45. The Ravens’ pass defense has made strides and has improved in the last month, which could account for the total tumbling. The bet percentages suggest sharp action when you look below. Concerning the spread, it’s hard to argue that Lamar Jackson isn’t at least 1.5 points better at home than Russell Wilson on the road.

Early Bet Percentage: Steelers 54% & OVER 70%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Ravens -6, Total 49 – Back Friday

NFL – (101) Cleveland at (102) Cincinnati – Total 47
Sunday, December 22 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

Cincinnati is 6-8 and trails in tiebreakers to Indianapolis and Miami who share the same record, but both are fading the Bengals are on the rise. Cincy would need the Chargers to finish 0-3, which seems unlikely, but stranger things have occurred. What does seem strange is the total falling off from 50.5 to 47. The Cleveland offense has only scored just over 17 PPG, but Bengals defense is rather toothless in conceding 33.3 PPG in their past three starts. We know how good the Joe Burrow offense is. Just before we were to post this, news broke that Dorian Thompson-Robinson is expected to start for the Brownies. Somebody knew something earlier.

Early Bet Percentage: UNDER 63%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total of 52 – Back Friday

NFL – (113) Philadelphia at (114) Washington Total 45.5
Sunday, December 22 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

This NFC East total was lowered two digits to 45.5 by Monday evening. It would appear two factors working in the same direction could have an effect. The Philadelphia defense has surrendered just 15.3 PPG in their last half-dozen outings. Though rookie QB Jayden Daniels has not fallen off a cliff in terms of leading his club to points, he’s thrown for under 200 yards in four of his past five starts. However, it’s of note that the Commanders are 5-0 OVER after two or more consecutive wins.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 72%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total of 48 – Back Friday

NFL – (125) San Francisco at (126) Miami  Total 44.5
Sunday, December 22 – 4:25 p.m. ET / CBS

Before the season, this had the making of an excellent late afternoon pre-Christmas nonconference clash with playoff implications. Instead, we got coal in the stockings with two 6-8 clubs having only the slimmest of chances to reach the postseason with literally every break having going their way. Both formerly high-powered offenses look like jalopies compared to the Ferrari run by Josh Allen these days. The total has lost its horsepower from 49.5 to 44.5 points. Our power rating supports the line movement and Miami is 6-1 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

Early Bet Percentage: Over 68%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total of 45 – Back Friday

NFL – (129) Tampa Bay at (130) Dallas  Total 48.5
Sunday, December 22 – 8:20 p.m. ET / NBC

If you haven’t been out looking at Christmas lights yet, this Sunday night affair might be your perfect opportunity unless you are a diehard Buccaneers backer. There is a good chance we’ll see more points than anticipated with the total elevated from 47 to 48.5. While Tampa Bay’s offense has averaged 31 PPG in their last four tries, Baker Mayfield has risen to #2 in interceptions behind Kirk Cousins. Dallas has most of the top secondary players back which could the team set up for scores with picks. If nothing else the Bucs are attempting to sew up their division and credit Mike McCarthy for not letting his team mail it in.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 83%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total of 49 – Back Friday

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