Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 16 Update

Doug Upstone / December 21, 2024 / NFL Betting Advice

Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 16 Update

By Doug Upstone

We have heavy action on totals to start the week. We are back with all the updates and free plays for Week 16.

NEW – NFL – (103) Houston at (104) Kansas City
Saturday, December 21 – 1:00 p.m. ET /NBC

With the early week uncertainty of Parick Mahomes availability, the total fell from 44.5 to 42. Mahomes practiced on Wednesday and was a full participant on Thursday and was declared ready for play. Yet the total didn’t budge. It seems safe to surmise Mahomes will play and not be as mobile as we have seen before. One has to take note that the Chiefs are 12-4 UNDER at Arrowhead recently. The lower number is a tough one, but given K.C.’s recent home mark and the Texans’ 5-0 UNDER after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better, let’s look in that direction.

Bet Percentage: OVER 55%
Doug’s Pick – Lean UNDER

NFL – (105) Pittsburgh at (106) Baltimore -6.5, Total 45
Saturday, December 21– 4:30 p.m. / FOX

A huge game for these bitter rivals. Pittsburgh wraps up the AFC North with a victory or, Baltimore moves into a first-place tie at 10-5, with Steelers holding the tiebreaker. Though another slipup and Ravens could charge ahead if they close without losing. Football bettors are sensing a Baltimore surge and lifted them from 5 to 6.5-point home favorites with the total down two points to 45. The Ravens’ pass defense has made strides and has improved in the last month, which could account for the total tumbling. The bet percentages suggest sharp action when you look below. Concerning the spread, it’s hard to argue that Lamar Jackson isn’t at least 1.5 points better at home than Russell Wilson on the road. Update: The Ravens have maintained their edge against the spread, but the total has backed up a smidge to 44.5. The Steelers are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in this bitter series because they make Baltimore play the Pittsburgh way. These two have gone UNDER in eight straight games, on average by five points below the closing figure.

Bet Percentage: Was Steelers 54% & OVER 70%, now Ravens 51% & Over 52%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Steelers and Play UNDER

NFL – (101) Cleveland at (102) Cincinnati – Total 47
Sunday, December 22 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

Cincinnati is 6-8 and trails in tiebreakers to Indianapolis and Miami who share the same record, but both are fading the Bengals are on the rise. Cincy would need the Chargers to finish 0-3, which seems unlikely, but stranger things have occurred. What does seem strange is the total falling off from 50.5 to 47. The Cleveland offense has only scored just over 17 PPG, but Bengals defense is rather toothless in conceding 33.3 PPG in their past three starts. We know how good the Joe Burrow offense is. Just before we were to post this, news broke that Dorian Thompson-Robinson is expected to start for the Brownies. Somebody knew something earlier. Update: The total went to the next level down to 46.5. It would seem the high-powered Bengals offense would score 27-31 points with how they are playing. This makes the question what will Cleveland get out of DTR? We’ll say 17 on the high side and call it an UNDER.

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 63%, now OVER 61%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Under

NFL – (113) Philadelphia at (114) Washington Total 45.5
Sunday, December 22 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

This NFC East total was lowered two digits to 45.5 by Monday evening. It would appear two factors working in the same direction could have an effect. The Philadelphia defense has surrendered just 15.3 PPG in their last half-dozen outings. Though rookie QB Jayden Daniels has not fallen off a cliff in terms of leading his club to points, he’s thrown for under 200 yards in four of his past five starts. However, it’s of note that the Commanders are 5-0 OVER after two or more consecutive wins. Update: The line movement caught up with where the action was headed. Since Tuesday the total has remained steady. Consider a higher score knowing that Washington is 5-0 OVER after three consecutive games posting 400 or more yards of offense.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 72%, now 55% UNDER
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (125) San Francisco at (126) Miami Total 44.5
Sunday, December 22 – 4:25 p.m. ET / CBS

Before the season, this had the making of an excellent late afternoon pre-Christmas nonconference clash with playoff implications. Instead, we got coal in the stockings with two 6-8 clubs having only the slimmest of chances to reach the postseason with literally every break having going their way. Both formerly high-powered offenses look like jalopies compared to the Ferrari run by Josh Allen these days. The total has lost its horsepower from 49.5 to 44.5 points. Our power rating supports the line movement and Miami is 6-1 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Update: Football bettors are satisfied with the early point reduction. We’ll say it’s too much and the final score fits in between the opening number and this one. San Fran is 12-2 OVER after one or more Unders and the Fins are 5-0 OVER at home playing against a team with a losing record.

Bet Percentage: Was Over 68%, now 74%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (129) Tampa Bay at (130) Dallas Total 48.5
Sunday, December 22 – 8:20 p.m. ET / NBC

If you haven’t been out looking at Christmas lights yet, this Sunday night affair might be your perfect opportunity unless you are a diehard Buccaneers backer. There is a good chance we’ll see more points than anticipated with the total elevated from 47 to 48.5. While Tampa Bay’s offense has averaged 31 PPG in their last four tries, Baker Mayfield has risen to #2 in interceptions behind Kirk Cousins. Dallas has most of the top secondary players back which could the team set up for scores with picks. If nothing else the Bucs are attempting to sew up their division and credit Mike McCarthy for not letting his team mail it in. Update: Once again, steady as it goes with no movement on this Sunday night total. These teams are each 9-5 OVER and if you look at the home/road splits, each is 5-2 OVER. Let’s follow the flow.