Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 17

GamblersWORLD NFL Week 17 Line Moves and Free Picks

This week we have a very unusual schedule as you are aware, but our focus is Line Moves and we have the biggest ones for you to peruse. Look for the Free Picks also, we had another winning week last week.

NFL – (407) L.A. Chargers at (408) New England +4, Total 42.5
Saturday, December 28– 1:00 p.m. / NFLN

Bettors have honed in on the three Saturday games and the line moves prove it. The first of the day has the Chargers tumbling from -6 to -4. Not sure exactly why other than the fact the Bolts have several players listed as – questionable – and they have to make a cross-country trip on a short week. What makes this stranger is the total went up three points to 42.5. If the Chargers’ defense were suffering that would be one thing, but New England only averages 17.5 PPG. We’ll take the bait on the Chargers who are 6-0 ATS on the road off a home win and the UNDER. We are not trusting the Patriots’ limited offense and knowing the Bolts are 5-0 UNDER away from a victory.

Bet Percentage: Chargers 77% & OVER 59%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Chargers and Under

NFL – (411) Denver at (412) Cincinnati Total  49.5
Saturday, December 28 – 4:30 p.m. ET / NFLN

Cincinnati remains a long shot to reach the postseason, however, a victory over Denver, who holds the last AFC spot, keeps the door open. The total in this AFC affair jumped from 47.5 to 49.5. When you think about Joe Burrow and the Bengals, you think points and they are 10-5 Over on the season. (though 2-1 Under in the last three) Denver is known for its defense, but you have to wonder if it is wearing down by surrendering over 30 points twice in its past three tries. Two angles in play that matter. The Broncos are 6-0 OVER vs. teams who give up 24 or more PPG and Cincy is 5-0 OVER against teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better.

Bet Percentage: OVER 70%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (415) Arizona at (416) L.A. Rams -6.5
Saturday, December 28 – 8:15 p.m. ET / NFLN

The L.A. Rams appear to be marching to a division title, overcoming a 1-4 start. Credit coach Sean McVay for righting the ship and changing the defense from one of the worst to at least average. A month ago, it seemed Arizona was poised to capture the NFC West, but three consecutive losses have taken care of those hopes. The Cardinals have flown to +6.5 point road underdogs with Los Angeles on a 4-0 SU and ATS surge. Maybe the Redbirds will put up a fight for a half, yet, they are still 4-12-1 since 2016 when facing L.A. and 2-10-1 ATS as an underdog.

Bet Percentage: Rams 83%

Doug’s Pick – Rams cover

NFL – (417) Las Vegas at (418) New Orleans +1.5
Sunday, December 29 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

New Orleans is playing on a short week coming off an embarrassing 34-0 whipping at the frozen tundra. With that loss and missing several offensive players while using rookie QB Spencer Rattler, the Saints were flipped from -2.5 to +1.5 at home to the 3-12 Raiders. Las Vegas won their first game since Week 5 against an equally inept Jacksonville bunch and they haven’t won two in a row in a year and are on a 2-15 SU run on the road.

Bet Percentage: Raiders 65%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Saints to cover

NFL – (429) Miami at (430) Cleveland  Total 40
Sunday, December 29 – 4:05 p.m. ET / CBS

Miami has a better chance to reach the playoffs than Cincinnati. By the time their game starts late Sunday afternoon, if the Chargers and Broncos have won, the Dolphins are eliminated. NFL bettors are focused on the total which has dropped from 42.5 to 40. Though the temps are expected in the mid to upper 40s in Cleveland, the rain is supposed to be continual, which mostly explains the sinking total. We preferred the Over until learning this; Home teams after four or more consecutive losses against the spread, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 38-12 UNDER, with an average score of 38.8 PPG.

Bet Percentage: Under 58%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Under

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (21-26-1 record): Lions, Commanders and Dolphins

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (24-24 Record): Falcons/Commanders OVER, Colts/Giants OVER and Cardinals/Rams OVER

Doug Upstone has been a decorated handicapper since 2003 and a sports betting writer since 2005. You can find Doug’s award-winning picks right here.