Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 18

Early Line Moves for NFL Week 18

It’s the last week of the regular season in the NFL and while there might not be the usual drama, football bettors are still moving lines and we have honed in on the key ones that don’t involve injury or players sitting out. See you back on Friday for the updates and free picks.

NFL – (355) Cincinnati at (356) Pittsburgh +1.5
Saturday, January 4 – 8:00 p.m. / ABC/ESPN

Cincinnati has to win and needs Denver and Miami to both lose to sneak into the playoffs. Pittsburgh needs a victory to stay in the #5 seed because if they lose and Baltimore and the L.A. Chargers win, the Steelers will open in the land of crap cakes for the wild card. These clubs are headed in opposite directions with the Bengals on a 4-0 SU and ATS run, while Pittsburgh is 0-3 SU and ATS. Despite this, it’s Cincy which has fallen from -2.5 to -1.5. Coach Mike Tomlin has a great 21-7-3 ATS record as a home underdog, yet, three of the seven losses have come in the past three games.

Early Bet Percentage: Bengals 56%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Bengals -1 – Back Friday

NFL – (341) Miami at (342) N.Y. Jets Total  39.5
Sunday, January 5 – 4:25 p.m. ET / FOX

With Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle questionable and Tyreek Hill gutting out the season, the total has fallen two points to 39.5. If this group were healthy, the total would be higher than 41.5 because the Jets’ defense has been torched for 28.8 PPG in their last seven outings. These AFC East rivals scored 58 points a month ago in Miami. The Dolphins can reach the playoffs with a victory and the Broncos stumbling. Watch for injury reports to see if the total moves further.

Early Bet Percentage: UNDER 88%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total of 42 – Back Friday

NFL – (347) L.A. Chargers at (348) Las Vegas +5.5
Sunday, January 5 – 4:25 p.m. ET / CBS

After the Chargers’ impressive win at New England last week, they went from -3.5 to -5.5 road favorites in Sin City. The Raiders have won two straight but nobody is singing their praises having knocked off Jacksonville and New Orleans, nonetheless, they did beat comparable foes. If the Steelers falter on Saturday, the Bolts have the added incentive to win because they would travel to Houston rather than Baltimore, which is far more advantageous going deeper into the playoffs. Las Vegas does look better with Aidan O’Connell under center, but if RB Ameer Abdullah cannot go, the Raiders run game is less potent.

Early Bet Percentage: Chargers 77%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Chargers -8 – Back Friday

NFL – (361) Houston at (362) Tennessee  Total 38
Sunday, January 5 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

This AFC South total climbed two digits to a still-low 38 points. Reports have Houston QB C.J. Stroud “pretty banged up” but head coach DeMeco Ryans said all healthy players will suit up. With the Texans locked in as the #4 seed, there is little to be gained exposing any starter to further injury, so while Stroud and others might start, there is no guarantee they will play four quarters. Let’s see what happens to the line come Friday.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 64%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total of 42 – Back Friday

NFL – (363) Minnesota at (364) Detroit  Total 56.5
Sunday, January 5 – 8:20 p.m. ET / NBC

The first-ever meeting of two 14-win teams in the regular season is for the top seed in the NFC. The loser of this battle will have no worse than the second-best record in their conference but will not get a playoff home game unless they face another wild-card opponent in the postseason. With how great the Detroit offense is playing and how dreadful their defense is, the total catapulted from 51.5 all the way to 56.5. We’re not sure that’s the ceiling either, with the Lions 8-1 OVER at home after a win by six or fewer points and the Vikings 10-1 OVER having won eight or more out of their last 10 games.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 82%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total of 57 – Back Friday

Doug Upstone has been a decorated handicapper since 2003 and a sports betting writer since 2005. You can find Doug’s award-winning picks right here.