Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 18 Update

GamblersWORLD NFL Week 18 Line Moves and Free Picks

It’s the last week of the regular season in the NFL and while there might not be the usual drama, football bettors are still moving lines and we have honed in on the key ones that don’t involve injury or players sitting out. It’s Friday which means updates and free picks.

NFL – (355) Cincinnati at (356) Pittsburgh +1.5
Saturday, January 4 – 8:00 p.m. / ABC/ESPN

Cincinnati has to win and needs Denver and Miami to both lose to sneak into the playoffs. Pittsburgh needs a victory to stay in the #5 seed because if they lose and Baltimore and the L.A. Chargers win, the Steelers will open in the land of crap cakes for the wild card. These clubs are headed in opposite directions with the Bengals on a 4-0 SU and ATS run, while Pittsburgh is 0-3 SU and ATS. Despite this, it’s Cincy which has fallen from -2.5 to -1.5. Coach Mike Tomlin has a great 21-7-3 ATS record as a home underdog, yet, three of the seven losses have come in the past three games. Update: There has been some backtracking with the sportsbooks evenly split with the Steelers at +2 or +2.5. There’s no way Pittsburgh wants to head to the postseason on a 0-4 SU run, yet, how hard do you go knowing next week will require even more effort? Cincy has to play their best, it’s their only hope.

Bet Percentage: Was Bengals 56%, unchanged

Doug’s Pick – Bengals cover

NFL – (341) Miami at (342) N.Y. Jets Total  39.5
Sunday, January 5 – 4:25 p.m. ET / FOX

With Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle questionable and Tyreek Hill gutting out the season, the total has fallen two points to 39.5. If this group were healthy, the total would be higher than 41.5 because the Jets’ defense has been torched for 28.8 PPG in their last seven outings. These AFC East rivals scored 58 points a month ago in Miami. The Dolphins can reach the playoffs with a victory and the Broncos stumbling. Watch for injury reports to see if the total moves further. Update: The total has dipped another half point, and that follows the news from coach Mike McDaniel Friday that Tua is “unlikely” to play. Backup quarterback Tyler Huntley is expected to make his fifth start of the season in Tagovailoa’s place. Stick with the UNDER.

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 88%, now 77%

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

NFL – (347) L.A. Chargers at (348) Las Vegas +5.5
Sunday, January 5 – 4:25 p.m. ET / CBS

After the Chargers’ impressive win at New England last week, they went from -3.5 to -5.5 road favorites in Sin City. The Raiders have won two straight but nobody is singing their praises having knocked off Jacksonville and New Orleans, nonetheless, they did beat comparable foes. If the Steelers falter on Saturday, the Bolts have the added incentive to win because they would travel to Houston rather than Baltimore, which is far more advantageous going deeper into the playoffs. Las Vegas does look better with Aidan O’Connell under center, but if RB Ameer Abdullah cannot go, the Raiders’ run game is less potent. Update: We’ve had a reversal on the number back to the Chargers at -4.5. There is more than some speculation that Justin Herbert won’t play, or if he does, maybe a quarter to get work, giving way to backup Taylor Heinicke. It’s hard to ignore O’Connell is 13-3 ATS as a starter. The Chargers are the better team and we’ll assume coach Harbaugh will expect effort from whoever plays.

Bet Percentage: Was Chargers 77%, now 70%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Chargers

NFL – (361) Houston at (362) Tennessee  Total 38
Sunday, January 5 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

This AFC South total climbed two digits to a still-low 38 points. Reports have Houston QB C.J. Stroud “pretty banged up” but head coach DeMeco Ryans said all healthy players will suit up. With the Texans locked in as the #4 seed, there is little to be gained exposing any starter to further injury, so while Stroud and others might start, there is no guarantee they will play four quarters. Let’s see what happens to the line come Friday. Update: This total headed back toward where it started at 36.5 or 37. With Tennessee favored, that suggests Houston will play backups. We note that home teams in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after trailing their last three games by 7 or more points at the half are 32-7 UNDER.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 64%, now 55% UNDER

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

NFL – (363) Minnesota at (364) Detroit  Total 56.5
Sunday, January 5 – 8:20 p.m. ET / NBC

The first-ever meeting of two 14-win teams in the regular season is for the top seed in the NFC. The loser of this battle will have no worse than the second-best record in their conference but will not get a playoff home game unless they face another wild-card opponent in the postseason. With how great the Detroit offense is playing and how dreadful their defense is, the total catapulted from 51.5 all the way to 56.5. We’re not sure that’s the ceiling either, with the Lions 8-1 OVER at home after a win by six or fewer points and the Vikings 10-1 OVER having won eight or more out of their last 10 games. Update: As expected, moda est buyback to 56 at midweek where the total has stood since Wednesday afternoon. With this important skirmish in the Motor City, the OVER has to be the call.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 82%, now 74%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (24-26-1 record): Buccaneers, Ravens and Packers

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (26-25 Record): Commanders/ Cowboys OVER, Dolphins/Jets UNDER and Vikings/Lions OVER

Doug Upstone has been a decorated handicapper since 2003 and a sports betting writer since 2005. You can find Doug’s award-winning picks right here.