Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 2 Update

Gamblers World NFL Line Moves and Free Picks: Week 2 Update

Favorites were 13-3 and 9-7 ATS to start a new season. What might this week hold? ALL Free Picks will come on Friday’s update edition. Here we go with updates and free picks for Week2!

NFL – (269) Tampa Bay at (270) Detroit  Total 51.5
Sunday, September 15 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

Both offenses looked good last week in winning. It is hard to say who looked better because facing the L.A. Rams as Detroit did is a greater challenge compared to Tampa Bay taking on Washington. Regardless, NFL bettors are backing the higher score in the NFC encounter (as you can see by the big percentage) and lifted the total from 48.5 to 51.5. The Lions allowing 387 yards to a limited Rams offense because of injury also has to factor into the thinking. Will Detroit at 9-3 OVER when a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points turns out true? Update: Bettors are satisfied with this number, as it has not moved all week. The Lions are a solid 10-5 OVER at home the last few years. However, Tampa Bay is a 7-0 UNDER in September the past few seasons and I’ll this contest slides just UNDER the number.

Bet Percentage: Was 93% OVER, Now 79%

Doug’s Pick – Lean UNDER

NEW – NFL – (275) San Francisco at (276) Minnesota +5
Sunday, September 15 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

The 49ers opened at -7 and went backward to -5. Undoubtedly, San Francisco having to travel on a short week and more likely not having Christian McCaffrey are the driving forces for the line movement. Granted, Minnesota is receiving some love for blowing out the Giants, but weren’t the Vikings picked last for the NFC Central? Sam Darnold might have the experience he didn’t have in the Big Apple but is he trustworthy against a defense that can apply heaving pressure? With this line in no man’s land, a case can be made both ways. Let’s side with Brock Purdy to outduel Darnold.

Bet Percentage: San Francisco 71%

Doug’s Pick – Lean 49ers

NFL – (283) L.A. Rams at (284) Arizona -1.5
Sunday, September 15 – 4:05 p.m. ET / FOX

Both these NFC West rivals lost their opener and both had a chance to emerge with a victory, with the defenses failing at clutch time. One squad will start 0-2 and Arizona has been flipped from +2 to -1.5 point home favorite. If you are wondering why, even going into last week coach Sean McVay was concerned about his battered offensive line offering Mathew Stafford protection. With more injuries to that group and WR Puka Nacua now on the IL, L.A. playing a second consecutive road game is a tough task. Update: The Cardinals took one step back to -1 midweek and the spread has stayed there since. As you can see in the Bet Percentage, football bettors are definitely trusting Coach McVay to come up with a winning game plan and it’s hard to ignore that the Rams are 13-2 SU and ATS in this series. Not quite as convinced as the masses, but I’ll side with L.A. also.

Bet Percentage: Was Arizona 73%, Now L.A. Rams 67%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Rams

NFL – (285) Cincinnati at (286) Kansas City -6
Sunday, September 15 – 4:25 p.m. ET / CBS

The calamity Cincinnati caused in Ohio was bad enough in being upset by New England, but nationwide damage they did to Survivor Pools was far worse. Though the Bengals are/were considered a contender to Kansas City in the AFC, one item that slipped through the cracks is the always frugal (some say cheap) Cincinnati ownership allowed 12 rookies to make the roster, presumably to save money. The Chiefs are the Chiefs until proven otherwise and they were slammed from -3.5 to -6 point favorites this week. Given the Bengals’ early season struggles the last few years, this makes sense, but will this number hold up with K.C. 5-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less? Update: In the last few days every time K.C. is -6, the number tumbles to -5.5. And when it is at -5.5, it jumps to -6. As mentioned, this opened with the Chiefs at -3.5, which is essentially their home-field edge. The oddsmakers seemed to be telling us something and let us pay attention and back Cincy.

Bet Percentage: Was Kansas City 72%, Now 70%

Doug’s Pick – Bengals cover

NFL – (289) Chicago at (290) Houston -7
Sunday, September 15 – 8:20 p.m. ET / NBC

The thinking for this primetime skirmish had to be C. J. Stroud vs. Caleb Williams for what seems like two up-and-coming teams. After watching both QBs play Sunday, football bettors are decisively choosing the former with Stroud and jumped on Houston from -3.5 to -7. Remember, today’s first lines are known as – Lookahead Lines – that are released before the previous game is played. The more accurate line is what you will find Sunday night after both teams have played. The Bears had 148 yards of offense against Tennessee and only won because of their special teams, forcing turnovers and Will Levis making brutal mistakes. The question is how will Williams react on the road? Update: This nonconference clash took a slight dip to 6.5, likely certain bettors like the possibility of what the Chicago defense can do. If you like the Texans, that half-point reduction matters.

Bet Percentage: Was Houston 90%, Now 87%

Doug’s Pick – Sorry, Premium Play

NFL – (291) Atlanta at (292) Philadelphia -6.5
Monday, September 16 – 8:15 p.m. ET / ESPN

For those who wondered why Atlanta drafted a quarterback early back in April, we saw why. Kirk Cousins is not close to 100% healthy from his Achilles injury last season, you saw firsthand that he tried to not put much weight on the leg and his follow-through is designed to push off the opposite leg, and that has reduced his velocity. With the Eagles’ offense looking crisp in Brazil, Philadelphia has flown from -4 to -6.5 in this battle of the Birds. Update: The line has been locked in all week. No question this feels like an overreaction against Atlanta and taking them is tempting. Yet, cannot ignore Philly is 9-1 ATS as home favorite when they are below -7.

Bet Percentage: Was Philadelphia 88% Unchanged

Doug’s Pick – Lean Eagles cover

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (1-2 record): Ravens, Texans and Eagles

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (2-1 Record): Chargers/Panthers UNDER, Bears/Texans UNDER and Seahawks/Chargers UNDER

Doug Upstone has been a decorated handicapper since 2003 and a sports betting writer since 2005. You can find Doug’s award-winning picks right here.