GamblersWORLD Line Moves: NFL Week 3 Update

GamblersWORLD NFL Week 3 Updated Line Moves and Free Picks

Last week there were EIGHT Outright upsets with underdogs 10-4-1 ATS. (Arizona closed as a Push) What will this week hold? ALL Free Picks are now available for Friday’s updated edition.

NFL – (451) L.A. Chargers at (452) Pittsburgh  Total 35.5
Sunday, September 22 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

The number of touchdown passes is WAY down compared to the last several years after two weeks and it’s not a shocker that totals are tumbling. This AFC total has dropped three points to 35.5 with few bettors convinced Justin Fields is the next Peyton Manning, averaging 136.5 yards per game passing. We understand Justin Herbert is a dynamic passer but with the Chargers having 71 rush attempts in the first two games, Herbert has only thrown for one more yard than Fields. Herbert hurt his foot and leg Sunday which is another reason the total fell and we will learn more as the week progresses. Update: There has been a bump back to 36, but this is still nowhere near the original starting point of 38. It appears Hebert is good to go. Both these clubs are in the Top 12 in rushing (LAC #2, Pitt #12) which could shorten the game and keep the score down. However, if Fields has turnovers, that could make an easy low score go Over. Tread carefully.

Bet Percentage: Was 90% UNDER, Unchanged

Doug’s Pick – Lean UNDER

NFL – (453) Chicago at (454) Indianapolis -1, Total 43.5
Sunday, September 22 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

Despite the money favoring a higher score, the total for this Midwestern clash has crashed from 46.5 to 43.5. At the same time, the Colts were lowered from a -2.5 point home favorites to -1. This contest features two young quarterbacks who haven’t looked good except for a few dynamic plays, which explains the total sinking. Chicago’s defense is strong at all three levels as we witnessed in their first two outings, which gives them a chance if QB Anthony Richardson makes poor decisions as he will do. Update: About 60% of the sportsbooks are now at a Pick, as Chicago money keeps coming in, with the total stable at 43.5. On the total, note Da Bears are 14-3 OVER away from home and the Colts are 7-3 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3.

Bet Percentage: Was Bears 57% and 70% OVER, Now 61% and 60% OVER

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER, the Side is a Premium Play

NFL – (455) Houston at (456) Minnesota +2.5
Sunday, September 22 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

A pair of 2-0 clubs collide and the home underdog is receiving the attention. Houston was sent out as a 4.5-point favorite, but that was before Minnesota upset San Francisco. The Vikings’ defense is disruptive, utilizing the attacking style of DC Brian Flores, which 49ers QB Brock Purdy described as “crazy” after the Niners’ loss. Everyone witnessed how Chicago’s physical and speedy defense affected Houston from the middle of the second quarter on and this contest is in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Something to keep in mind, the Vikes are 4-7 ATS when the line is -3 to +3 and the Texans are 5-1 ATS since 2022. Update: Minnesota is down to +2 in this anticipated conflict. With the Texans 2-13 ATS against a team that won and covered their last outing, sporting a win percentage of .700 or higher in the first four games of the season, the Vikings could win.

Bet Percentage: Was Vikings 70%, now 53%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Vikings

NEW – NFL – (459) Philadelphia at (460) New Orleans -3, Total 49.5
Sunday, September 22 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

Philadelphia was favored by -3 to open against New Orleans and was still at -2 Monday afternoon 25 hours after the Saints had spanked the Cowboys in Big D. After football bettors had watched the Eagles squander their lead and the game against Atlanta, within 20 minutes of the end of that contest, New Orleans was adjusted to -1.5 and now sit at -2.5 or -3. At the same time, the total has crept up from 47 to 49.5, with both offenses appealing to those placing NFL bets. It seems there is enough firepower to back the OVER and Philly is 5-0 OVER after playing on a Monday. The side is more complicated if you preferred the Saints as an underdog and now this large a home fave. It seems whatever defense can generate to rattle the opposing QB will be your winner. Derek Carr appears more unflappable at this time.

Bet Percentage: New Orleans 60% and 65% OVER

Doug’s Pick – Take OVER, Lean Saints

NFL – (461) Denver at (462) Tampa Bay Total 39.5
Sunday, September 22 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

We have significant line movement for non-conference clash with the total crumbling from 43 points all the way to 39.5. One can understand why as Denver rookie QB Bo Nix has played like the rest of his first-year peers, making mistakes and holding back the Broncos offense. Tampa Bay has held its first two opponents below 20 points, making this a possibility again. However, Baker Mayfield has made all the plays and while it’s not always artistic, the Bucs are scoring. Would not be surprised to see this total rise as the week moves along and NFL bettors feel the same way. Update: After a significant drop in the total, we have a partial reversal back to 41. Tampa Bay’s secondary is loaded with backups because of injury and while we are not sure if Bo Nix can exploit this, just an extra field goal could be the difference or if the Broncos build on the five turnovers they have already committed. The Buccaneers have been elevated from -5 to -6.5 with the way they are playing. Denver is 2-7 ATS as a road underdog of seven points or less.

Bet Percentage: Was 70% OVER, Now 53% OVER, Buccaneers 53%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER, Lean Buccaneers

NFL – (471) Baltimore at (472) Dallas +1
Sunday, September 22 – 4:25 p.m. ET / FOX

Dallas opened as a single-digit home fave and has been flipped to a one-digit home pooch. The Cowboys’ defense film session had to look like a horror movie as they never stopped New Orleans, who gained 422 yards and ran up 44 points. Last Sunday, Baltimore blew their third home game in three years when holding a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. Doing so against a team like the Raiders offense is unforgivable. The Ravens tried to downplay they had a rebuilt offensive line, but it’s showing and they are staring at a potential 0-3 start. Because Dallas is assigned a three-point home field edge, in either point spread scenario, the oddsmakers are telling us the Ravens are better. What do you think? Update: Baltimore remained a single-digit favorite. It’s of note that 0-2 SU teams facing an opponent who is 1-1, are 35-15 ATS when this situation arises.

Bet Percentage: Was Ravens 65%, now 55% 

Doug’s Pick – Ravens cover

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (1-5 record): Chargers, Bengals and Raiders

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (5-1 Record): Chargers/Steelers UNDER, Giants/Browns UNDER and Texans/Vikings OVER