Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 4

Early Line Moves for NFL Week 4

There are just literally survivors left in Survivor Pools. Underdogs of 5.5 or more points are 14-2 ATS and 10-6 outright! And the betting public is 17-30-1 after three weeks, their 2^nd-worst start in 20 years? Will the insanity continue? ALL Free Picks are now available for Friday’s updated edition.

Note: There were big line moves on the Chargers and Vikings, but those were predicated on the possible status of each quarterback, which doesn’t fit our criteria for line moves.

NFL – (263) New Orleans at (264) Atlanta  Total 42.5
Sunday, September 29 – 1:00 p.m. / FOX

After scoring in the 40’s twice to start the season, who would have thought one week removed a New Orleans total would tumble four points to 42.5! The Saints and Atlanta scored just 29 combined points last week. Defensively, New Orleans is only permitting 14.7 PPG and the Falcons are at 20.3 PPG, and that comes after facing Philadelphia and Kansas City. We saw Derek Carr go just 14-25 for 130 last week when the Saints couldn’t post big rushing yards, making that something to watch. Atlanta’s offense is only #20 and it slips to #27 in yards per point showing their inability to cash when in scoring position.

Early Bet Percentage: UNDER 65%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

NFL – (265) Pittsburgh at (266) Indianapolis  +2
Sunday, September 29 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

If you watched these two teams this season, Pittsburgh’s Justin Fields is the steadier, more reliable quarterback to date in this confrontation. The Colts Anthony Richardson is completing less than half his pass attempts and the big cause is his horrific footwork, tossing (literally) passes two feet short or three feet over pass catchers heads. Considering this information and that Pittsburgh is #1 in total defense while Indy is #31, the Steelers moved from +1 to -2 seems to add up. Toss in Pittsburgh is 13-7 ATS on the road and 8-3 ATS after one or more consecutive victories, backing Indianapolis becomes a conundrum.

Early Bet Percentage: Pittsburgh 70%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

NFL – (267) Jacksonville at (268) Houston  -7
Sunday, September 29 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

As bad as Houston played in the Land of 10,000 Lakes this past Sunday, it’s Jacksonville that looks like it is drowning after a complete no-show 47-10 butt-whupping at Buffalo. That leaves the Jaguars 0-3 SU and ATS and coach Doug Pederson was talking major changes after the game, that might include QB Trevor Lawrence. (Just think if Lawrence is benched, Jacksonville just changed the name of their stadium to TrEverBank). Though the Texans were awful last week, this feels like a bloated number for a division game since Houston is 0-2-1 ATS. It is worth noting the visitor is on a 5-0 SU and ATS move.

Early Bet Percentage: Houston 90%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

NFL – (271) Cincinnati at (272) Carolina +4.5 Total 48.5
Sunday, September 29 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

The Cincinnati defense might have difficulty stopping a good flag football team with their injuries and its ridiculously bad secondary play. Carolina played like a professional football squad thanks to having a real professional QB in Andy Dalton by routing the Raiders. The total went from large to ginormous like a Circle K takeout cup, up SIX points to 48.5. And few want any part of giving a touchdown with the Bengals, lowering them from -7 to -4.5. Both the side and total will require research because who really are the Panthers and what do you make of Cincinnati going forward?

Early Bet Percentage: Bengals 60%, UNDER 62%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

NFL – (277) Philadelphia at (278) Tampa Bay Total 45.5
Sunday, September 29 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

This is a fascinating NFC encounter with a total sliding from 47.5 to 45. Philadelphia is moving the pigskin, ranked #2 in total offense, yet is #24 in YPPT, mostly because of six turnovers or needlessly going on 4^th down and short, failing to make it instead of taking the points. After many were singing the praises of QB Baker Mayfield, the Tampa Bay offense has 216 and 223 yards respectively in their last two outings for 27 total points. Though neither team is in bad shape in their division, the direction they take after this skirmish will be particularly interesting for the loser. The UNDER is on a 4-0 run in this matchup.

Early Bet Percentage: UNDER 70%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

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