Early Line Moves for NFL Week 5
The betting public continues to get slammed overall at 22-38-2 ATS this season, the worst percentage in two decades. With the byes beginning and teams starting to play outside the U.S., will we start to see a correction or will it be one of those years? ALL Free Picks are back on Friday.
Note: The Thursday Tampa Bay at Atlanta game fits for line moves, with the Falcons lowered from -3 to -1.5, but the update is not until Friday.
NFL – (451) N.Y Jets at (452) Minnesota -2.5, Total 40.5
Sunday, October 6 – 9:30 a.m. / NFLN
We know the Lookahead Lines can be off quite a bit after the previous week’s games were played, but this one caught our attention. This at a
neutral field in London, seeing the Jets flying from -2.5 to +2.5 is striking against Minnesota. That’s not to say it is not justified because Gang Green’s offense is not coming together and there appears to be friction between Aaron Rodgers and coach Robert Saleh. The Vikings seem the opposite in doing everything right in their 4-0 SU and ATS start. But with that strong a record, is Minnesota due for regression?
Early Bet Percentage: Vikings 75%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL – (455) Baltimore at (456) Cincinnati Total 50.5
Sunday, October 6 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS
This is an important battle for these AFC North rivals. Baltimore has looked good in winning their last two contests, while Cincinnati finally scratched in the win column last Sunday. On offense, both offenses are functioning nicely with the Ravens #5 (26.5 PPG) and Bengals #9 (25.5). This would explain the total cruising from 47 to 50.5 points. Yet, the defenses are not terrible, ranked #13 (Baltimore) and #15 (Cincy) in total defense. The one Bengals shortcoming is ranking #28 in yards per point allowed. The OVER is 6-3 recently and 5-1 OVER in the Queen City.
Early Bet Percentage: OVER 85%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL – (463) Cleveland at (464) Washington -3
Sunday, October 6 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX
If there was ever a quarterback difference that pointed to a star in the making and one past his prime, this is it. Jayden Daniels is playing like a young star and has captured the complete interest of Washington fans as we have not seen in decades. Cleveland has an albatross in Deshaun Watson who has run out of excuses for his mediocre play in charge of an offense averaging 16.5 PPG (#27). NFL bettors have taken notice and Washington has been elevated from -1 to -3 over the Browns. However, are bettors ready to back the Commanders as this large a home favorite based on their history?
Early Bet Percentage: Commanders 62%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL – (469) Green Bay at (470) L.A. Rams Total 48
Sunday, October 6 – 4:25 p.m. ET / CBS
Wasn’t the Green Bay defense supposed to be a strength this season? The Packers’ stop troops have been burned for over 30 points twice and though they held the Colts to 10 points, they conceded 322 yards. The Rams have lost the anchor in Aaron Donald on the defense and are permitting 28.5 PPG. That is no fluke, listed as #31 in total defense. The total in the NFC encounter has been pounded like Green Bay fans putting down brandy, shifted from 44.5 to 48. The Pack is riding on a 12-4 OVER train vs. NFC foes.
Early Bet Percentage: OVER 88%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL – (473) Dallas at (474) Pittsburgh Total -2.5
Sunday, October 6 – 8:20 p.m. ET / NBC
What an interesting line move with Pittsburgh being switched from +1 to -2.5 despite the Steelers losing as a favorite and Dallas winning.
The Cowboys have the offensive edge, at 24.3 PPG, compared to Pitt at 18.8 PPG. The bigger factor might be the defensive side of the ball where the Boys are #26 in points allowed and #28 in total defense, compared to Mike Tomlin’s crew #2 and #4 in those respective categories. One should at least ponder that Mike McCarthy’s squad is 1-6 ATS on the road when playing against a team with a winning record, with the Steelers 6-2 ATS at home off one or more setbacks.
Early Bet Percentage: Steelers 54%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
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