Early Line Moves for NFL Week 6
We continue our look into line moves moving ahead to Week 6. Though the total split the 14 games on Overs and Unders last week, there has been more early movement towards bigger numbers this week. Head on back Friday and we will have more free picks on all these games along with intriguing betting trends that bettors should know.
NFL – (263) Jacksonville vs. (264) Chicago -2.5, Total 44.5
Sunday, October 13 – 9:30 a.m. / NFLN
Once again Jacksonville has a two-week stay in England thanks to their owner. The Jaguars finally secured their first victory this past week,
but that only happened after blowing a 14-point lead at home to Indianapolis. The Bears Caleb Williams had his best game as a pro versus Carolina on Sunday. With Chicago’s #7 defense, Da Bears were shoved from -1 to -2.5 over the Jags. The total rising from 42 to 44.5 points certainly appears to be a reflection of coach Doug Pederson’s team having the #31 total defense.
Early Bet Percentage: Bears 55% & OVER 88%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL – (265) Washington at (266) Baltimore Total 52.5
Sunday, October 13 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS
In the Metro Atlantic area, we have the making of a game that people want to watch and also wager on. Washington and Baltimore are the Top 2 scoring teams in the NFL at 31 and 29.4 PPG respectively. This matchup will feature QBs, Lamar Jackson in his prime against media sensation Jayden Daniels. NFL bettors have pounded the total to begin the week, lifting the number three points to 52.5. Each squad is 4-1 OVER to date. Is that the right way to bet or might this come into play? When the total is 49.5 or higher and the home team has a completion percentage of 60% or higher, after allowing eight or more passing yards per attempt in their last game, the UNDER is 34-11.
Early Bet Percentage: OVER 90%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL – (277) L.A. Chargers at (278) Denver +3
Sunday, October 13 – 4:05 p.m. ET / FOX
Denver has won three in a row after an 0-2. The Broncos under rookie QB Bo Nix tallied 34 points in the win over Las Vegas Sunday, their most since 2022, yet; they have gone from +1.5 to +3 point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers. Denver is only 28th in the league in total offense and tied for 22nd in scoring, nonetheless, both numbers are higher than what Justin Herbert and his teammates have posted, listed #29 and #28 in those same categories. This line adjustment seems all the more curious with Denver 9-1 SU hosting the Bolts the last decade, including a current 5-0 SU run.
Early Bet Percentage: Denver 67%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL – (279) Pittsburgh at (280) Las Vegas Total 36.5
Sunday, October 13 – 4:05 p.m. ET / CBS
With two sluggish offenses in this AFC affair, the total has dipped two points to 36.5. Though Pittsburgh’s Justin Fields has not played poorly, reports have Russell Wilson taking snaps for the Steelers in practice and is expected to be “active” this week. For the Raiders, Gardner Minshew has not distinguished himself, and backup Aidan O’Connell in relief completed half his 20 passes for a pathetic 4.7 yards per attempt. In games where the line is +3 to -3, the Black and Silver is 8-4 UNDER since 2022.
Early Bet Percentage: OVER 70%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL – (281) Atlanta at (282) Carolina +6, Total 47.5
Sunday, October 13 – 4:25 p.m. ET / FOX
The lookahead line proved inaccurate, at least by perception, based on how these NFC South rivals played last week. Atlanta scored 36
points with over 500 yards passing, beating Tampa Bay in OT. Carolina was drilled 36-10 in Chi-Town and it was so through that Bryce Young got to play. The Falcons have flown from -3 to -6 road favorites and the total has done the same from 43.5 to 47.5, in spite of the betting trend saying otherwise. Since 2020, the Panthers are 5-3 ATS and the Under 6-2 in this rivalry.
Early Bet Percentage: Falcons 85% & UNDER 70%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
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