Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 6 Update

GamblersWORLD NFL Week 6 Updated Line Moves and Free Picks

We continue our look into line moves moving ahead to Week 6. Though the total split the 14 games on Overs and Unders last week, there has been more early movement towards bigger numbers this week. For Friday we have all kinds of Free Picks. And if you follow the betting trends properly, they are sensational 20-9-1 ATS!

NFL – (263) Jacksonville vs. (264) Chicago  -2.5, Total 44.5
Sunday, October 13 – 9:30 a.m. / NFLN

Once again Jacksonville has a two-week stay in England thanks to their owner. The Jaguars finally secured their first victory this past week, but that only happened after blowing a 14-point lead at home to Indianapolis. The Bears Caleb Williams had his best game as a pro versus Carolina on Sunday. With Chicago’s #7 defense, Da Bears were shoved from -1 to -2.5 over the Jags. The total rising from 42 to 44.5 points certainly appears to be a reflection of coach Doug Pederson’s team having the #31 total defense. Update: The early sharp on Chicago has been overtaken despite the Bears drawing more wagering support than earlier in the week and they are back where they started at -1. Conversely, the total is unscathed, still at 44.5. Here is what you have to answer. Do you want a rookie QB backed with an excellent defense? Or a shaky more veteran QB coming off his best game in some time with a defense that has lots of holes? Let’s go with the better team and defense with Chicago. For the total, Play UNDER on teams like Jaguars when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points – after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, with a win percentage of 25% or lower, playing a team with a winning record. (30-8 UNDER)

Bet Percentage: Was Bears 55% & OVER 88%, now Bears 61% & OVER 62%

Doug’s Pick – Bears cover and UNDER

NFL – (265) Washington at (266) Baltimore  Total 52.5
Sunday, October 13 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

In the Metro Atlantic area, we have the making of a game that people want to watch and also wager on. Washington and Baltimore are the Top 2 scoring teams in the NFL at 31 and 29.4 PPG respectively. This matchup will feature QBs, Lamar Jackson in his prime against media sensation Jayden Daniels. NFL bettors have pounded the total to begin the week, lifting the number three points to 52.5. Each squad is 4-1 OVER to date. Is that the right way to bet or might this come into play? When the total is 49.5 or higher and the home team has a completion percentage of 60% or higher, after allowing eight or more passing yards per attempt in their last game, the UNDER is 34-11. Update: The early expectation of a widely offensive game has been tempered, with the total down a digit to 51.5. Does the aforementioned system matter more than the Commandos 7-1 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 5-0 OVER vs. teams scoring 24 or more points on the road?

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 90%, now 65%

Doug’s Pick – Sorry, Premium Pick

NEW -NFL – (273) Cleveland at (274) Philadelphia -9
Sunday, Oct. 13 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

In this non-conference clash, Philly has flown from -6 all the way to -9. It appears there is a two-pronged reason. The first is the sorry Cleveland offense directly by Deshaun Watson, that has the worst total offense and is #30 in scoring. The rest of the reasoning is the Eagles are off a bye week, at home, and have injured players like wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, along with right tackle Lane Johnson, who were full participants in practice this week. Though underdogs of +5 or more are 19-6-1 ATS this season, backing the Browns would take some “onions”, here is something else to consider. Not suggesting backing Philadelphia on the ML at -440, however, favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 28-2 SU, but most importantly are winning by 11.4 PPG on average in this spot.

Bet Percentage: Eagles 64%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Eagles to cover

NFL – (277) L.A. Chargers at (278) Denver  +3
Sunday, October 13 – 4:05 p.m. ET / FOX

Denver has won three in a row after an 0-2. The Broncos under rookie QB Bo Nix tallied 34 points in the win over Las Vegas Sunday, their most since 2022, yet; they have gone from +1.5 to +3 point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers. Denver is only 28th in the league in total offense and tied for 22nd in scoring, nonetheless, both numbers are higher than what Justin Herbert and his teammates have posted, listed #29 and #28 in those same categories. This line adjustment seems all the more curious with Denver 9-1 SU hosting the Bolts the last decade, including a current 5-0 SU run. Update: The line has been steady as an accountant keeping track of his company’s numbers. The argument as to who covers revolves around can and up and down rookie Box Nix have success versus the Chargers’ #5 total defense? The way the Broncos have played at a mile-high in this rivalry suggests to this writer to snag the points.

Bet Percentage: Was Denver 67%, now 57%

Doug’s Pick – Broncos cover

NFL – (279) Pittsburgh at (280) Las Vegas  Total 36.5
Sunday, October 13 – 4:05 p.m. ET / CBS

With two sluggish offenses in this AFC affair, the total has dipped two points to 36.5. Though Pittsburgh’s Justin Fields has not played poorly, reports have Russell Wilson taking snaps for the Steelers in practice and is expected to be “active” this week. For the Raiders, Gardner Minshew has not distinguished himself, and backup Aidan O’Connell in relief completed half his 20 passes for a pathetic 4.7 yards per attempt. In games where the line is +3 to -3, the Black and Silver is 8-4 UNDER since 2022. Update: There has been no movement on the total since Tuesday morning. Pittsburgh is 4-1 UNDER, and Las Vegas is 3-2 OVER. While turnovers can impact a total either way, the belief is since the Raiders have nine miscues and the Steelers have forced eight turnovers, something bad will happen on Las Vegas side of the field that will allow Pittsburgh to score, sending the total OVER.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 70%, now 72%

Doug’s Pick – Lean OVER

NFL – (281) Atlanta at (282) Carolina +6, Total 47.5
Sunday, October 13 – 4:25 p.m. ET / FOX

The lookahead line proved inaccurate, at least by perception, based on how these NFC South rivals played last week. Atlanta scored 36 points with over 500 yards passing, beating Tampa Bay in OT. Carolina was drilled 36-10 in Chi-Town and it was so through that Bryce Young got to play. The Falcons have flown from -3 to -6 road favorites and the total has done the same from 43.5 to 47.5, in spite of the betting trend saying otherwise. Since 2020, the Panthers are 5-3 ATS and the Under 6-2 in this rivalry. Update: The has remained the same, with the total bumped back to 47. Andy Dalton’s initial entry helped Carolina, but that appears over, especially with the Panthers having even more injuries. As far as the total, not on board the Dalton Gang will manufacture enough points to push this to a higher score and the Cats are 11-0 UNDER off a road loss.

Bet Percentage: Was Falcons 85% & UNDER 70%, now Birds and UNDER 86%

Doug’s Pick – Falcons cover and UNDER

 NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (4-10-1 record): Falcons, Steelers and Lions

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (10-5 Record): Colts/Titans OVER, Falcons/Panthers UNDER and Buccaneers/Saints UNDER

Doug Upstone has been a decorated handicapper since 2003 and a sports betting writer since 2005. You can find Doug’s award-winning picks right here.