Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 7 Update

GamblersWORLD NFL Week 7 Updated Line Moves and Free Picks

This week we have so many line moves in the NFL because the lookahead lines ended up being so far off compared to what numbers likely should have been that we added one more from our usual array. We have everything updated and a bunch of Free Picks to boot!

NFL – (451) New England vs. (452) Jacksonville -5.5, Total 42.5 
Sunday, October 20 – 9:30 a.m. / NFLN

Not sure how you look at this any other way. Jacksonville is 1-5 and 2-4 ATS and they have jumped from -2.5 to -5.5 against New England in the old England. Really?  Granted, the Jaguars play in London annually and twice a year with more regularity. But did anyone see an overabundance of Jacksonville jerseys at Wembley Stadium last week to have a home-field edge? Granted, the Patriots are not very good, yet, do the Jags deserve to be this big a favorite? The total moving up from 38 to 42.5 seems to work with the Patriots #25 in total defense and Jacksonville #31. Update: The Jaguars continue to draw support, shifted up to -6, but the total went the other way to 41.5. We understand Jacksonville is the more talented team and should cover, but that defense has holes that rookie QB Drake Maye could take advantage of it. As far as the total, consider a bigger score with the Jaguars 5-0 OVER after allowing six or more yards a play in three consecutive games.

Bet Percentage: Was Jaguars 69% & 60% UNDER, now 61% and 70% UNDER

Doug’s Pick – Take OVER, Lean Patriots to cover

NFL – (453) Seattle at (454) Atlanta  Total 51 
Sunday, October 20 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

Things change quickly in the NFL. Three weeks ago, rookie head coach Mike McDonald was lauded for energizing the Seattle franchise with a 3-0 start, with the defense allowing 14.3 PPG. Since, the Seahawks faced some stiffer competition and are 0-3, surrendering 35.6 PPG. With Atlanta’s offense suddenly on fire in scoring 36 and 38 points in their past two outings, the total flew upward like the rockets from Space X to 51, after starting on the ground at 47.5. In these clubs’ last three contests, they are a combined 6-0 OVER. Will that continue? Update: This total remained steadfast at 51, signifying the market is satisfied, yet, the bet percentage really came down. Not that hard to make a case for totals of 49 to 53 and we’ll go with the UNDER just barely, with the Falcons 5-1 UNDER vs. teams who give up 24 or more PPG.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 93%, now 57%

Doug’s Pick – Lean UNDER

NFL – (457) Cincinnati at (458) Cleveland  +6.5, Total 42 
Sunday, October 20 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

Though anyone can debate just how good Amare Cooper is at age 30, Cleveland trading him to Buffalo looks like the first white flag from the Browns organization with whom they have a quarterback. The betting numbers tell the story as Cincinnati has been buffed up three points as a road favorite, on the road no less to their in-state rival. That line movement had nothing to do with the Bengals less than impressive 17-7 win in New Jersey. The same would be said about a sinking total to 42, after opening at 45.5. What an indictment against Deshaun Watson and the state of the Browns. Update: We have a pair of buybacks in the battle of Ohio. The ugly Browns were lowered to +5.5 or +6 (books about evenly split) and the total to 41.5. This sort of feels like Cleveland has to win or the season is over, but where does the offense come from? The UNDER is 10-7 when these rivals play near Lake Erie.

Bet Percentage: Was Bengals 87% & UNDER 66%, now 73% & UNDER 81%

Doug’s Pick – Leans UNDER and Bengals cover

NEW – NFL – (465) Philadelphia at (466) N.Y. Giants Total 43 
Sunday, Oct. 20 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

Philadelphia with all its offensive talent is only scoring 21.2 PPG and just 17 PPG in the past three trips to the gridiron. The New York Football Giants are averaging a mere 16 PPG, thus, it’s not hard to imagine the total has plummeted from 46.5 to 43. These two clubs are 13-7 OVER in New Jersey, which is food for thought. In truth, the way the total goes depends on Jalen Hurts. He plays well, the contest goes Over, he plays mediocre football, and the game ends with an Under. We’ll side with the latter, with the Eagles 6-0 UNDER after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, with the G-Men 8-1 UNDER at home versus defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards a play.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 75%

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

NFL – (467) Las Vegas at (468) L.A Rams  -7 
Sunday, October 20 – 4:05 p.m. ET / CBS

Here is another massive line move that NFL bettors could not resist, playing against the Raiders. Las Vegas might have two QBs on their roster, but if you take the sum of those parts and compare them collectively to Matthew Stafford, that’s a mismatch. The same goes for the head coaching spot, with L.A. having Sean McVay dueling with Antonio Pierce. Little wonder the Rams have pushed their way from a field goal home favorite to a touchdown choice. Update: On Thursday, there was action on Las Vegas down to +6.5, but later that night it was back to +7. The Raiders actually have the better SU and ATS record, yet this large an underdog?

Bet Percentage: Was Rams 90%, now 75%

Doug’s Pick – Sorry Premium Play

NFL – (469) Washington at (470) Carolina  Total 51.5 
Sunday, October 20 – 4:05 p.m. ET / CBS

The last two top quarterbacks taken in the past two years are in this matchup, having been chosen to alter the direction of their franchises. One has worked out and the other has not and that explains why Washington is 4-2 and Carolina is 1-5. Barring a last-minute decision from the Panthers, Bryce Young will have an ear plug to listen on the sidelines, while Jayden Daniels will run the Commanders offense. With Washington’s ability to score and allow points and Carolina having the worst scoring defense in the NFL, the total adjusted four points upward to 51.5. These NFC squads are both 5-1 OVER heading into this affair. Update: No line movement whatsoever in this clash, stuck on 51.5. Washington averages almost 30 PPG and the defenseless Panthers surrender better than 33 PPG. If Carolina reaches 20 points, the OVER should be good and we’ll say that occurs.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 71%, now 84%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (477) L.A. Chargers at (478) Arizona +2.5 
Monday, October 21 – 9:00 p.m. ET / ESPN+

The Chargers were three-point road favorites at Denver, which felt high since the Broncos had won three straight. The Bolts ran off to a 23-0 lead before coasting to a seven-point triumph. L.A. opened as a Pick on the desert last week, but after how both played on Sunday, the Cardinals are presently a 2.5-point home underdog. Slowly but surely the Chargers are taking on the look and feel of their head coach Jim Harbaugh, while Arizona continues to beat themselves. Case in point, the Bolts have two turnovers this season, and the Redbirds have eight. Update: There is regression for this Monday matchup the NFL expects you to pay for with two-thirds on Arizona at +1.5, with the rest at +2. The Bolts have only 53 points in their last three outings and it’s becoming clear this team doesn’t have a big-play passing offense despite the presence of Justin Herbert. Nevertheless, the Cards have given 99 points in their last trio of starts and the Chargers are 8-4 ATS as road faves.

Bet Percentage: Was Chargers 90%, now 71%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Chargers cover

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (7-10-1 record): Commanders, Bills and Rams

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (10-8 Record): Chargers/Cardinals OVER, Bengals/Browns UNDER and Texans/Packers OVER

Doug Upstone has been a decorated handicapper since 2003 and a sports betting writer since 2005. You can find Doug’s award-winning picks right here.