Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 8

Early Line Moves for NFL Week 8

Once again, many totals are vastly adjusted and we grabbed many of them. We also have line movement on point spreads but didn’t take any that involved injuries that dramatically adjusted the number. See you on Friday with Free Picks that are 9-5 the past two weeks.

NFL – (263) Tennessee (464) Detroit -11.5
Sunday, October 27 – 1:00 p.m. / FOX

If you didn’t know already, Detroit (5-1 SU & ATS) is a very good football team and Tennessee (1-5 SU & ATS) is not. The Lions opened at -9.5 and have moved mostly to -11, though when looking at various sportsbooks, we were finding -11.5 or even -12 early Tuesday afternoon. Though Detroit is coached by Dan Campbell, you wouldn’t expect a letdown. However, after beating Dallas and Minnesota and having upcoming battles at Green Bay and Houston, it’s possible the Lions could take the Titans lightly.

Early Bet Percentage: Lions 91%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

NFL – (265) Baltimore at (266) Cleveland  Total 44.5
Sunday, October 27 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

It seems impossible the Cleveland quarterback situation couldn’t be in worse shape. Deshaun Watson was revolting but is gone for the season. Backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s status for the game is unclear after being injured himself, which likely leads to Jameis Winston under center. On Tuesday, the Browns signed Bailey Zappe off the Chiefs practice squad. Besides all the mayhem in Cleveland, the total climbed from 42 to 44.5. Why? Lamar Jackson is throwing the ball even better this season and is coming off a five-TD game. Also, the Ravens are 6-1 OVER thus far.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 55%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

NFL – (267) Green Bay at (268) Jacksonville Total 49.5
Sunday, October 27 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

The Packers passing offense is a bit off by the numbers when they ran the ball 85 times (modest exaggeration) against Indianapolis when Malik Willis took over Jordan Love when he was injured. Green Bay is #9 in passing yards per game and would probably be a few spots higher if Love had played each contest. The Jacksonville defense has played every game and they are #31 in passing yards allowed and struggle to play man or zone defense. With this knowledge, the total zoomed three points to 49.5. With the Pack 8-0 OVER after a win by six or fewer points, will the line move still hold up?

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 74%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

NFL – (269) Indianapolis at (270) Houston  Total 46
Sunday, October 27 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

This is a rematch from Week 1 when Houston emerged victorious 29-27 at Indianapolis. Despite the high score, the total is slid from 48.5 to 46. A very likely reason is the erratic play of QB Anthony Ricardson. In the four contests he’s played the majority of the snaps, the Colts have averaged 18.5 PPG. In the three games Joe Flacco has played the entire four quarters twice and three in another, Indy has averaged 27 PPG. We’d be remiss not to add the Texans are 8-1 UNDER at home when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.

Early Bet Percentage: UNDER 54%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

NFL – (469) N.Y. Giants at (470) Pittsburgh -6.5 Total 36.5
Monday, October 28 – 8:15 p.m. ET / ABC/ESPN

It is most would agree, that Giants QB Daniel Jones is in the bottom quarter of those playing his position and was not a good draft pick. Jones’ situation is made worse by playing behind one of the five worst offensive lines in the NFL for 80% of his career and the 2024 version might be the most miserable yet. With Pittsburgh #2 in scoring defense, the total sinking (39 to 36.5), and the Steelers a rising home favorite (-4 to-6.5), it’s hard to find fault with either line move.

Early Bet Percentage: Steelers 77% & UNDER 90%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

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