Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Wild Card

Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Wild Card

The NFL Wild Card numbers have had all week to bake. Now we present them for your pleasure and offer our free pick thoughts and try to explain why they moved.

NFL – (375) L.A. Chargers at (376) Houston Total 42.5
Saturday, January 11 – 4:30 p.m. / CBS

For the season, both teams posted totals that favored the UNDER, the Chargers at 9-8 and Houston at 10-6-1. Football bettors are looking at the Texans only scoring 14.7 PPG in their final three ballgames and ignoring the Bolts were at 36 PPG but dropping the total from 44 to 42.5. Nonetheless, the Chargers were the #1 scoring defense in the NFL at 17.7 PPG and we know they like to play old-school football under Jim Harbaugh which means running the ball with a safe pass offense and keeping the clock moving. Houston knows going in this could be a limited possession battle and they are 10-2 UNDER in games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 73%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

NFL – (377) Pittsburgh at (378) Baltimore, -9.5, Total  43.5
Saturday, January 11 – 4:25 p.m. ET / PRIME

These AFC North division rivals are headed in distinctly different directions entering the playoffs and taking a lower score with them. Baltimore has won and covered four in a row, peaking at the right time. Pittsburgh has done the complete opposite at 0-3 SU and ATS. With that, the home-standing Ravens opened at -8.5, the highest spread in this encounter since 2015 and it’s been lifted a point to -9.5. At the same time, those betting the NFL are not counting on many points as that tumbled from 46 to 43.5. Baltimore just spanked the Steelers 34-17 two weeks ago as a touchdown favorite. With how well John Harbaugh’s club has looked and how bad Mike Tomlin’s team has performed it looks like another blowout. With nothing to lose, the Steelers give a fantastic effort in a low-scoring affair and fall 23-17 to cover, which leads to an UNDER.

Bet Percentage: Ravens 65% and UNDER 82%

Doug’s Pick – Steelers cover and UNDER

NFL – (381) Green Bay at (382) Philadelphia -5
Sunday, January 12 – 4:30 p.m. ET / FOX

We’ve heard a great deal this week about Green Bay having the coaching edge in this NFC skirmish with Matt LaFleur. Those folks are thinking about the regular season LaFleur, not the playoff LaFleur. We got a sample of the latter in the Packers’ loss to Chicago last week where he made at least three obvious mistakes that all played a part in his team entering the playoffs on a two-game losing stretch. Philadelphia at home is a task for the Pack and they were lifted from +3.5 to +5 as the week moved along. The Jordan Love of exactly one year ago is not in same, with this version consistently missing throws with a defense that permits too many yards at key points. The Pack have proven they are one level below the best at 0-5 SU to the Eagles, Lions, and Vikings and Philly is a 14-2 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less, winning by 9.0 PPG.

Bet Percentage: Eagles 61%

Doug’s Pick – Eagles cover

NFL – (397) Minnesota vs. (398) L.A. Rams +1 Update, now -2.5
Monday, January 13 – 8:00 p.m. ET / ABC/ESPN

Maybe Minnesota will be able to shake off the butt-whipping Detroit handled them. Let’s face, the Vikings won 14 games so one loss is just a detour, right? Once again, maybe. The Vikings well-regarded offensive line was man-handled by a Detroit defensive line that had struggled for weeks. Sam Darnold more resembled the QB that played in green and white and though maybe he wasn’t seeing “ghosts”, he was definitely befuddled by too many Lions. The Rams’ defense has improved enough that they could bother the Minnesota offense and with essentially two weeks off, Los Angeles will be mentally and physically refreshed other than some possibly dealing with the fires this week. The Rams have slid from +2 to +1 and have a legit chance to beat the Vikes who play a third consecutive road game. Update: This game was moved to Arizona on Thursday because of the L.A. fires. That is a positive development for Minnesota and they are now a 2.5-point favorites. Our best suggestion is to see if the Vikings go to -3, which we think is possible and that is time to hit L.A.

Bet Percentage: Was Rams 74%, now 60%

Doug’s Pick – Was Rams cover, now slight lean

 NFL Top 2 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (25-28-1 record): Bills and Commanders

NFL Top 2 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (27-27 Record): Steelers/Ravens UNDER and Chargers/Texans UNDER