Best Bets for the Genesis Invitational
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Colin Morikawa
Odds: Win 1,600 ~ Top Five 260 ~ Top Ten 125
Payout: Win 800.00 ~ Top Five 65.00 ~ Top Ten 31.25
Morikawa will be our chalk this week going against Sheffler who is the huge favorite again after making a run early on Sunday last week.
Morikawa has made two starts and it has been good with a solo second at The Sentry and a T17 at Pebble Beach. Over his last 18 starts, he has finished outside T28 only once that including eight top 10s and his game is ideal here. At Torrey, he had a T21 in his 2020 debut and followed it up with a T4 at the U.S. Open in 2021 and a solo third at The Farmers in 2023.
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: Win 3,500 ~ Top Five 550 ~ Top Ten 250
Payout: Win 1,750.00 ~ Top Five 137.50 ~ Top Ten 62.50
Fleetwood has to win on the PGA Tour at some point and why not here where his metrics fit well. Because of his limited rounds, we have to look back at last season where he was No. 11 in Driving Accuracy and No. 7 on both Total Driving and Scrambling. Most importantly, this week, over his last 24 rounds, he is No. 12 in SG: Off-The-Tee and No. 8 in SG: Approach. He was not good here at the U.S. Open in 2021 with a T50 but was coming in with awful form with three missed cuts in five stroke play events.
Taylor Pendrith
Odds: Win 4,000 ~ Top Five 600 ~ Top Ten 275
Payout: Win 2,000.00 ~ Top Five 150.00 ~ Top Ten 68.75
We cannot go away from Pendrith who quietly competes each week. He has six top 15s in his last seven starts and five top 10s in his last 10 starts, including a T7 at The Farmers at Torrey. Going back further, he has missed one cut in his last 20 starts which goes back to last April, and included are more top-end finishes culminated with a win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He is No. 5 in SG: Tee-To-Green and No. 10 in SG: Approach-The-Green with the latter being No. 3 in the field.
Will Zalatoris
Odds: Win 4,500 ~ Top Five 750 ~ Top Ten 320
Payout: Win 2,250.00 ~ Top Five 187.50 ~ Top Ten 80.00
With this event being switched to Torrey, it will not be a birdie fest and that benefits Zalatoris who is No. 168 in Putting Inside 10 Feet. He counters that with his No. 22 ranking in SG: Tee-To-Green and this course he can take over. We had him at The Farmers where the setup would not have been as difficult but we did not get to see him as he WD before the start and we are not concerned about weather or a more difficult trip this time, especially with his odds and a field cut by more than in half.
Results through the WM Phoenix Open (4 Tournaments):
Win: -8,500
Top Five: -4,250
Top Ten: +1,100
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