2024 NFC WEST PREVIEW

This 2024 NFC WEST Playoff Preview is presented by Playbook Sports.

The season win totals and odds to make the playoffs are from the opening lines at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.

These write-ups were extracted from the 2024 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine, on sale now at Barnes & Noble and Book-A-Million bookstores across the country, along with the Gambler’s Book Store in Las Vegas.  You can also a copy directly from Playbook when you visit PlaybookSports.com.

ARIZONA CARDINALS – ONE BELLY RUB AT A TIME

Last season, the Westgate SuperBook projected the Cardinals would be underdogs in every game of the 2023 season – and they were spot on as Arizona “puppied up” in all 17 games. Their projected season win total was 5, which seemed odd for a team expected to lose every match. Heck, heading into the 2023 season, Arizona was the underdog in 25 consecutive contests. Yet, somehow, Vegas slated them as favorites in five different events, including three consecutive times in December. Sheesh. Not even the addition of arguably the best player in this year’s draft, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., might boost their power rating enough to justify such a surge. Yes, they had the luxury of seven picks in the first 100 in this year’s NFL draft. But, with offensive coordinator Nick Petzing being one of 17 new OCs in the league and this being his first shot at the role, a lot is riding on his unproven performance. This much we know – the Top 10 teams in scoring all made the playoffs last season. Nine of the ten teams that failed to average 20 PPG did not. The Cardinals have pierced the 30-point scoring plateau just one time in 25 games. Yech.

Season Win Total: 7 OVER

Odds To Make Playoffs YES +300 / NO -360

Stat You Will Like: The Cardinals will play six games against teams that hired new coaches this offseason – the Commanders, Chargers, Seahawks (twice), Patriots, and Panthers, as 30 head coaches have been fired in the last four years.

PLAY ON: at Seattle (11/24) 

LOS ANGELES RAMS – KUPP’S UP

Dating back to 1990, NFL teams have lost an average of just a smidge more than three games outright as a favorite each season. Anything more is concerning as it means a team’s bias changes dramatically with each unexpected setback. It is highly unusual when a team suffers a handful (5) or more games in this manner yet still finds its way to the playoffs. It’s what the Rams did last season when, as a “mission team,” they returned to their winning ways despite being tripped in five games. The big question is how the defense will respond to the retirement of sure-shot HOF defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Sean McVay addressed the loss in the draft and via free agency, so the drop should not be dramatic. The bigger news is the return of all-world WR Cooper Kupp, who will pair with NFC Offensive Rookie of the Year WR Puka Nacua, who took the league by storm in Kupp’s absence, catching 105 passes for 1.486 yards and 6 TDs. With 36-year-old veteran QB Matthew Stafford appearing younger by the year, they figure to stay on the 49ers’ heels like flypaper on the sole of a shoe. Color this dangerous Very dangerous – it doesn’t hurt that they will be home the entire month of October.

Season Win Total: 8.5 OVER

Odds To Make Playoffs YES +115 / NO -135

Stat You Will Like: Rams QB Matthew Stafford is 6-1 SUATS in season-opening games. 

PLAY ON: at Detroit (9/8) 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – SHOOTING FROM THE HIP

As the incomparable Aaron Neville would say, we’re here to tell it like it is. It’s not going to be easy for the 49ers to make their way back to the Super Bowl this season, for numerous reasons. For starters, the onerous label of ‘Super Bowl Loser’ will accompany them throughout the season. Ask last year’s Philadelphia Eagles what it feels like. And while you’re at it, ask the Cincinnati Bengals in 2022. The fact of the matter is, that these same groups of branded losers tend to struggle the following season. Making matters worse, Warren Sharp highlights the fact that San Francisco will play eight games this season at a rest disadvantage compared to their respective opponents. The negative rest disparity across these eight games totals 32 days, the largest net rest disadvantage (-21 days) in the last decade. It’s also worth noting that Frisco is +23 in Net Turnovers over the past two seasons, tops in the league – a big factor in their overall success. While you can rest assured that after last season’s heartbreaking Super Bowl loss against the Chiefs, Kyle Shanahan may be tired of kissing Andy Reid’s rump, but our ‘Stat You Will Like’ cautions otherwise. That and the fact that the Niners own the #1 largest net rest disadvantage (-21 days) in the last decade and #6 largest since 1990 (49ers) 

Season Win Total: 11.5 UNDER

Odds To Make Playoffs YES -450 / NO +375

Stat You Will Like: Kyle Shanahan is 0-4 SUATS in his career against Andy Reid, by an average loss margin of 12 points per game.

PLAY AGAINST: at Los Angeles Rams (9/22)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – A LARGE PAIR OF SHOES

The Seahawks are going from having the NFL’s oldest head coach to having the NFL’s youngest head coach. The halcyon days of seeing Pete Carroll on the Seahawks sidelines are in the rearview mirror as new HC Mike Macdonald’s philosophy and defensive schemes, along with new OC Ryan Grubb, inherit a roster that has Carroll’s footprint all over it. After an outstanding two-year run as the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, 36-year-old Macdonald appears to be a solid fit for a team with lots of young defensive pieces. In 2023, his defense became the first ever to lead the league in scoring defense, sacks, and takeaways. He inherits a trio of wide receivers that many feel are the best unit collectively in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, all returning after making franchise history by each finishing with over 600 receiving yards last season. Ironically, Grubb heads down the I-5 from the University of Washington where the Huskies put up school-record numbers last season. The fact remains, though, that whenever a team changes head coaches, especially after a long, successful run like Pete Carroll had with the Seattle Seahawks, there is a natural angst among the fanbase. After a break-in period, it should end soon. This just in: Offseason acquisition QB Sam Howell was one of only eight quarterbacks to start every game in the NFL last season 

Season Win Total: 7.5 OVER

Odds To Make Playoffs YES +200 / NO -240

Stat You Will Like: The Seahawks are 16-3 SU and 18-0-1 ATS at home when coming off consecutive losses. 

PLAY AGAINST: at Detroit (9/30)

The 2024 NFC West Playoff Preview is presented by Playbook Sports, where Marc Lawrence has been providing top handicapping tips and picks for nearly three decades. Get his top picks and best bets here at gamblersWORLD.