Turn NFL Blowouts into Betting Opportunities
Unexpected Comebacks
You are going to see instances in the NFL where a team gets blown out of the water. Nothing went right; the defense got run over, the quarterback threw three interceptions, and there was no offense whatsoever.
The team looked so bad that it doesn’t even look like they belong in the NFL.
Yet they have to turn around the next week and lace ’em up again to get ready to play.
There are so many things wrong that it would seem inconceivable that they could make a comeback.
But you’re going to find out that it does indeed happen.
The Surface-Level Trap for Novice Bettors
Novice bettors look at things on the surface and they tend to place a lot of emphasis on the results of the week before and not enough on the overall picture.
But there is a way to make that work to your advantage.
Examples from the 2023 Season
Let’s use some illustrations from the 2023 season:
* The New York Giants lost 40-0 to Dallas in a glaring non-performance in the opening week. But they turned around the next week and made a nice comeback to win against Arizona.
* The Washington Commanders were flattened 37-3 by Buffalo in the third week. The next week in Philadelphia, they threw a huge scare into the Eagles, losing 34-31 in overtime.
* The Detroit Lions took it on the chin by a 38-6 count by Baltimore in Week 7. They rebounded the next week to beat the Raiders by twelve points and chase Josh McDaniels out of his coaching job.
* The Carolina Panthers won two games last season. One of them took place after a 42-21 loss to Miami, as they beat playoff-bound Houston 15-13.
* The Seattle Seahawks were humbled 30-13 to the Rams in the opener, but then they came back to score a 37-31 overtime win over Detroit, the runner-up in the NFC.
* The Pittsburgh Steelers, an AFC wild card, were hammered 30-6 by the Texans on October 1. The next week they beat Baltimore 17-10.
* The Denver Broncos famously lost 70-20 to Miami on September 24, giving up 726 yards in the process. The next week they won at Chicago 31-28, chalking up their first victory of the season.
* The Los Angeles Chargers lost 63-21 to the Raiders on December 14, which got coach Brandon Staley shoved out the door. The next week they got themselves together to give life-and-death to Buffalo, losing 24-22 on a field goal with 28 seconds to go.
Understanding NFL Parity and Player Pride
Maybe you’re curious about how these things could happen.
Well, let’s concede that the teams that took those drubbings were not as bad as they looked. Or, the team that beat them was not as good as THEY looked. If you did not see this, you’d be losing perspective.
The fact of the matter is that there IS a certain degree of parity in the NFL, much more than you see in college football. That happens by a
draft, free agency, and a salary cap. So in terms of a true power rating, there isn’t nearly the disparity in the NFL that exists in, say, the SEC, when it comes to the difference between the strongest and weakest teams.
Remember that when it comes to the football player pool, the NFL features the best against the best. These guys are all pros, and because of that, upsets are altogether possible.
When a team gets beat by an embarrassing margin, it will bring something out of them in the way of a reaction. These are not kids; they are pros, and they have a certain level of professional pride. Outright embarrassment is not going to be tolerated very long.
You are very likely to see more focus on the part of the players. Coaches, who operate without job security, are going to have to get on top of things as well. Everybody is angry; everybody is determined, or at least they should be. It’s a wake-up call. And if these coaches know how to motivate, they can unite a team behind the need for redemption.
There is also the possibility that the opponent that week may be subconsciously overconfident.
Opportunities for Bettors
What this means to you as a bettor is a possible opportunity to take advantage of a situation where the disgraced team is undervalued, and maybe you can pounce on it.
Take note that we prefer these situations in the first half of the season, because blowouts in the second half, particularly when they involve weak teams, maybe more indicative of other factors, such as a team that is out of a playoff race and may be more or less giving up. When that happens, horrible situations often carry some degree of possibility.
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