NFL Betting — Bounce back after those bad weeks

Charles Jay / September 16, 2024 / NFL, NFL Betting Advice

The Ups and Downs of NFL Betting

You will find, as you continue with NFL betting, that you are going to have some terrible weeks. These are weeks when you are going to get depressed; when you wonder whether you should go forward. Of course, results tell a story in and of themselves, but the whole thing may get punctuated by a victory that suddenly turns into a defeat in the most crushing way possible. This is a “bad beat” as you might hear about sometimes on the poker table.

Avoid Reactionary Betting

I can tell you that I have had one of these weeks at least once per season. And you just feel like you want to put your foot through the TV set. So I have been there.

I would advise you that it could be catastrophic to come back in a reactionary fashion. What do I mean by that? I mean that you get “mad” at the teams that did not win for you, betting against them simply because you rationalize that they “suck.” Worse yet, you might start chasing your losses with wagers that are way out of proportion, relative to your bankroll.

But you have to step back, take a deep breath, and resolve yourself to exercise some discipline. If you’ve got it in you somewhere, this is when you need it.

If NFL betting is going to be a satisfying pursuit for you, you must be able to treat a horrible week like a football coach does. You have to react as a quarterback does after he throws an interception. You have made mistakes, or fortune has escaped you/ Now it is time to shrug it off and keep going, with as little emotion as possible. If anything, you are going to be more dispassionate than you were before.

You keep in mind that there is nothing you can do about what happened during that disaster. But you can certainly influence what happens NEXT week.

And part of that involves what you can learn from your mistakes. If you can break it down, you can correct it.

Learn from Your Mistakes

I have been doing this for over 35 years, and I still take a look at the plays I have made, whether they won or lost, so I can see WHY they won or lost. if there is something I didn’t do that I could do better, I try to make that adjustment. At the same time, I was lucky to win one, I acknowledge that and try not to over-estimate my “expertise” when it came to picking that winner. NFL betting is the type of activity that can keep you very humble, but what you don’t want it to do is make you timid.

So while you don’t want to go overboard the next time out looking to make up all your previous losses in one weekend, you don’t want to be afraid to take a shot with your opinion, instincts, and whatever other resources you have at your disposal.

Ask yourself, “Am I ultimately confident in what I can do?” If the answer is “yes” (and indeed I hope it is), then you don’t want to walk on eggshells. You are going to be ready to pull the trigger when the situation calls for it.

If you are truly in this for the long term, you have to follow whatever it is that your money management plan tells you to do, within the proportions of your bankroll, of course. The only time you would make wagers lower than your norm is when your bankroll is reduced to the point where you have to re-work the size of your bets.

Betting Requires Guts

I once had a friend who wanted some plays from me. The first week we won big, and then in the second week we had a few losers. It wasn’t even a disastrous week; it was a moderate deficit. He started whining. He said he didn’t know if he wanted to bet this much anymore.

I told him – in the nicest possible way – that if he didn’t have the balls, he didn’t have any business betting on the NFL.

I would tell you the same thing.

No reward happens without risk, and even though there may be light at the end of the tunnel, you may have to negotiate your way through some of the obstacles in that tunnel first. That’s just the way it is. When it comes to NFL betting, if you’re not interested in being a long-term player, you might as well not play at all.