Catching a Head of “Steam”
You are looking for whatever information you can get your hands on when you are betting on NFL games. We’re not just talking about the teams themselves, but also the people who are betting on those teams, because those people will influence the parameters under which those games are wagered upon.
Some of them are better at it than others. Some are more respected than others. The best of them are known as either pros or wiseguys or
sharps. And it doesn’t hurt to know where they’re going with their bets, especially when they strike hard.
There are various ways from which you can come to an educated conclusion as to which team is drawing the smart money. Let’s discuss one of them.
What is a Steam Move
It’s called the “steam” move.
So just what is steam?
A steam move is an occurrence whereby a line will move after an overabundance of money from professional bettors (also known as “sharps” or “wiseguys”) comes into the market on one side of a proposition, usually a point spread or total. This line move does not move like a turtle; it will happen rather suddenly.
Certain sportsbooks are more welcoming of sharps than others. So these moves tend to get followed at those outlets. However, the steam is usually created when several outlets have experienced a disproportionate amount of professional action, or action that comes from a single source that is most highly respected and/or feared.
How to Spot Steam
Everybody has access to either software or a website (Oddschecker, for example) that enables them to see odds from several sportsbooks at a glance.
On those occasions when the vast majority of sportsbooks, seemingly en masse, move the line on a game, you know that, more often than not, you’ve got smart money making a considerable play on the game.
This movement of the line may only be a half-point. But if it is coming off a “key” number (3, 6, or 7, for instance), it carries a degree of significance.
When you see the steam move, you know that these bettors like the team an awful lot. And you may be tempted to follow suit.
Should You Follow the Steam?
You may decide to be a “steam chaser,” that is, someone who sees which side the money is getting in this steam move and moves in that direction. After all, if you respect what the “pros” do, you’d much rather be on their side than the other side.
But it should go without saying that if you act after the steam move has been made, you may already be too late. A half-point late.
Now, you can argue that if sharp bettors are putting a lot of support on a team, the half-point shouldn’t make a difference. There may be some truth to that.
But just to be safe, and for the sake of getting the maximum value from the wager, you’ll want to shop around to see if you can get the same number that was posted before the move. That’s why your best shot is to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks.
Is there a possibility that one of the sportsbooks has not responded to the steam? Well, perhaps. But it’s kind of worth the effort to find out.
You may find that once you have seen the steam move, and missed it, you have lost the opportunity to get “the best of it,” maybe because you are off the key number, at the very least knowing all this may get you to come OFF a game you may have been enthusiastic about. And that is something that may serve you well throughout the season.
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