How Important is the O-Line?
How should you consider injuries in the course of NFL betting? Here are a few insights that might be helpful.
Most people think it’s tragic if a player who plays with the ball in his hands is sidelined. I wouldn’t get too freaky about injuries to outstanding skill position players unless it was generally known that the sub could not get the job done in the NFL. And in cases like that,
the player wouldn’t stay around for too long anyway.
Of course, there are exceptions, in which case missing a quarterback, for instance, makes a huge difference. Let’s face it – the Los Angeles Chargers are not the same team with Easton Stick behind center as they are with Justin Herbert.
Skill Position vs. Quarterback Injuries
But if you get the notion to jump on the opposite side when a team has an injury like that, don’t forget that the oddsmaker has already adjusted his line in accordance with that injury. Playing “with” the injury – in the NFL anyway – is frequently a smart strategy.
Several teams in the NFL have invested a great deal in backup quarterbacks. And except for a handful of established star running backs, there is a lot of interchangeability in the offensive backfield. So one does not want to go overboard with the absence of players like this.
Oddsmakers and Line Adjustments
When I am reviewing the availability of players, there are certain positions I look at that will take on more importance than others. And the general public does not so easily recognize it. This is especially true for those NFL bettors who also play fantasy football because their contributions don’t often show up in their leagues.
My focus is in another place entirely.
Focus on Offensive Line
The first place you should look – the offensive line
Have you ever noticed that you see running backs and wide receivers shuffled in and out of the lineup from play to play, but that doesn’t necessarily happen in the case of the offensive line? That’s because these guys are the bedrock of any offense, and there can be a tremendous drop-off from the first team to the second team at the interior positions.
The offensive line is very important – if you don’t believe me, just tune in to ESPN on any draft day and see how high the top offensive tackles, particularly those on the left side, are taken. This has become a passing league, and teams have to be able to protect their quarterback or else they’re going to have a lot of problems winning games.
World-class offensive linemen are very hard to replace, and the cohesion that is required among the offensive linemen is vastly underrated. They make a lot of things work – not only keeping the passer upright but also opening holes for the tailback to run through. Most quarterbacks, if you give them enough time, can pick any team apart. Most running backs can get through a hole if it is big enough. The offensive line allows for it.
Historical Examples
Just look at what happened in Super Bowl LV (55) with the Kansas City Chiefs. Going into that game, they did not have one player on the offensive line who was in the same position as they were when the season began. Injuries had their effect and the line was shuffled around.
As a result, Patrick Mahomes, who had been the MVP of the AFC, found himself running for his life most of the evening. He only suffered three sacks, but he faced constant pressure from a fierce Tampa Bay Bucs pass rush, and only his great mobility allowed him to escape and get off as many passes as he did.
But the Chiefs were held without a touchdown, and Mahomes averaged only 5.4 yards per attempt in the 31-9 defeat. The lack of offensive line strength had left them up a creek without a paddle.
Always check out the linemen. That holds a key for you that is out of sight for many.
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