NFL Week 1 Recap: What bettors learned

Diamond Don / September 12, 2022 / NFL Betting Advice

Week1 in the NFL is always a tough one for bettors, especially in today’s day and age where starters don’t play more than a handful of snaps in the shortened preseason. Not only does it make it tough to handicap NFL games and pick winners, but it is also difficult for some players to come out of the gate replicating what they did in previous seasons.

Take Joe Burrow for example. He threw four interceptions against the Steelers and the Bengals still almost won the game! It took the one thing that many gamblers don’t even take into account, special teams, as the Steelers blocked an extra point to send the game to OT. Yeah this game had it all, and Pittsburgh ended up winning, after more missed fields goals by both sides, in overtime. The Steelers home opener is Sunday against the Patriots, who are on the road again after dismal loss to the Fish in Miami. Pittsburgh is a one-point home dog in the matchup and this is a number to watch.

The Cowboys are in Trouble, with a capital “T”
America’s Team was struggling offensively before quarterback Dak Prescott broke his thumb on a helmet in the 4th quarter. He didn’t complete a pass longer than 22 yards and Zeke had but 52 yards rushing. Prescott’s adjusted yards per pass figure of 3.07 was the worst of the 28 quarterbacks who started Sunday. The ‘Boys season win total now sits at 6.5 at FanDuel and other books, while the odds to win the NFC East now have Dallas as the long shot at +460. It should be +1000. It would be nearly impossible to fade the Cowboys too hard in the coming weeks.

The Chiefs don’t need Tyreek Hill
One of the more intriguing games on the board last weekend was Chiefs at Cardinals – Mahomes vs. Murray. But Kansas City came out strong, Mahomes threw 5TDs, used nine different players as targets and the Chiefs rolled, putting up 44 and leading 37-7 at one point. Right before the season started K.C. was 10-1 to win SBLVII, now they are down to +750. Some value can be found on the NFL futures market as the Chiefs are +155 to win the AFC West. This week they play the team right behind them for the division, as the Chargers visit Arrowhead. The early line this summer had the Chiefs as 2.5 point favorites and, after the win on Sunday, the odds burned past the key number of 3 and now sits at Chiefs -3.5 points.

Bills Super Bowl future odds validated
The Bills took apart the defending Super Bowl champion L.A. Rams on Thursday night with a decisive 31-10 win. Josh Allen was awesome and solidified his odds at the top of the MVP futures betting and the Bills, who have been the favorite to win SBLVII, now sit at just 5-1 on the NFL futures betting board. The Titans come into Buffalo this Sunday and the Bills Mafia will be going nuts. The Bills are now favored by 10 points at most sportsbooks, but were still 9.5 point favorites at FanDuel, as of this writing. After the way Tennessee played vs the N.Y. Giants, maybe that number should be more like 13.

Who are these teams?
The Titans loss was right up there with the 49ers loss to the Chicago Bears. Both teams had high hopes going into the season and probably still do, though we’re not betting on it. The Packers proved that talent at the wide receiver position does matter, no matter HOF-bound quarterback or not. Packers are favored by -9.5 at home against the 1-0 Bears, the 49ers are 8.5 point favorites at home against the Seahawks and the Titans are huge dogs at Buffalo. Bettors should beware of these three teams in upcoming games until there is more data (and solid play) from each team to justify a play-on or play-against wager.

Double Digit Favorites
There are already four teams who are double digit favorites in Week 2 and the perception is that it’s always tough lying 10 or more in the NFL. This is the most 10-point or more favorites this early in the season in more than a decade with the Rams, Broncos, Packers and Bills all facing weak teams. Ten of the 15 games went under the posted total so far this season. Look for tying these games with big favorites to betting under the total in these games. This is a proven winning angle, that goes against what the public likes to do (which we love to do), as Joe Average Bettor bets favorites and overs. The Packers/Bears total of 42.5 looks particularly appealing.