The weather has turned ugly, several teams that we expected to do well are starting to fire, while other that were a surprise in 2022 are coming back to reality. And, the top teams not from Minnesota cemented reasons for bettors to believe.
AFC Top Dogs Prove it
The Kansas City Chiefs are by far the pride of the AFC right now and QB Patrick Mahomes is playing off-the-charts football. Mahomes is currently an enormous -160 favorite at FanDuel, where the #2 choice is Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, at +600! 
The Chiefs were down at the half, but outscored the Chargers 17-7 in the second half t go to 8-2, sitting atop the AFC in the 2022 NFL playoff picture. Mahomes and the Chiefs put up 485 yards of offense. The Chiefs are a whopping more-than-TWO-touchdown favorite at home vs. the Rams. In the NFL, especially in 2022, that’s alot of points. So far this season, favorites of more than 6.5 points are just 19-29, good for a 61% ATS win-rate for the big dogs.
Teams to Watch
After an impressive win South of the Border, the San Francisco 49ers look like they are for real. After losing in back-to-back weeks to the Falcons and Chiefs, they went and got Christian McCaffrey and saw the return of several defense stars, including Nick Bosa, (10.5 sacks, 2nd in the NFL). They haven’t lost since, going 3-0 and outscoring opponents 91-40! The Niners are also a large favorite at -9.5 at home, hosting the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are just 4-7 ATS, partly due to a league leading 19 turnovers. The 49ers are 5-2 when forcing at least one turnover this season, while going .500 ATS.
The Cincinnati Bengals are starting to look like the team that represented the AFC in SBLVI. They’ve won four of their last 5 and put up 30, 35, 42 and 37 in those four wins. 
Much of this success is due to the resurgence of Joe Burrow. Over the same five game span he’s thrown for over 1500 yards with 13 TDs to three INTs. Last Sunday he threw seven passes of 20 yards or longer to six receivers. Might be time to get back on the Burrow bandwagon. Bettors and linesmakers have certainly noticed and the Bengals are 2.5 point road favorites at Tennessee, who lead the league with an 8-2 ATS record. Definitely, one to watch.
Weather
A quick note about weather, now that freezing games in gusty winter winds are upon us. The impact of weather on scoring is often neglected by NFL bettors when betting on the total number of points scored in a game. Domes are immune, but excessive wind speeds can be a considerable hindrance in both the passing and kicking game. However, wind has little impact on a game’s rate of scoring until it reaches speeds of 15 mph and above and is more impactful when average wind speed is 20 mph or greater. In the 65 or so such games studied in the last decade, actual final game totals averaged just over 35 points per game vs 46.5 ppg in games under a dome. Last weekend, Baltimore (13-3), New York (18-31) and New England (10-3) had winds in excess of 15 MPH.
Bet or Fade
At the onset of the 2022 NFL season, the Arizona Cardinals were a middle-of-the pack favorite to win SBLVII. But, after getting dismantled by the Niners, they are now as high as 200-1 to win the Super Bowl. Rightfully so, they weren’t that good with Kyler Murray struggling and since a 7-0 start last season, they are a dismal 8-13. FADE
The Broncos offense is awful – flat out bad. After 9 games, Denver has managed just 23 points twice this season. Over the 1-6 run they are on, only once have they managed to score more than one TD in a game. They are on the road for the next two weeks at two teams with pretty good defenses, Carolina and Baltimore. The Broncos a re 1-4 on the road, 3-7 overall and 3-7 ATS. FADE
We’ve gone several weeks without a peep about Tom Brady. Well TB12 is bringing the Bucs back with two straight wins, including the Germany game. Coming off a bye, the Buccaneers have two games upcoming vs teams they have to beat to get back in the playoff race. This week they are 3.5 point favorites at Cleveland and in the look-ahead line at FanDuel, 6.5 point favorites at home vs. the Saints in Week 13. The real problem with betting on Tampa Bay is their dismal 3-6-1 record ATS. But, two very winnable games with small(er) points spreads look good for Tampa Bay before the showdown on the road at the 49ers in Week 14. BET
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