NFL Week 2 Recap: What bettors learned

Diamond Don / September 20, 2022 / NFL Betting Advice

Week 2 of the NFL season is in the books and the late heroics/meltdowns by teams dominate the discussions heading into Week 3. The Bad Beats were flying in Week 2 and the last two minutes of NFL games feels like the 9th inning of an MLB game anymore – literally anything can happen. The surprises by some of the previously-thought worst teams in football are also something that bettors should watch. Let’s examine whether any of these teams are contenders or if early predictions were right.

These teams are 2-0?
Yes, the New York Giants managed to win both of their first two games in 2022. Didn’t see that coming! The G-Men sent the Panthers down to 0-2 and despite a glaring lack of offense, the Giants have found a way to win so far. And that’s a sign of a good team, right? Don’t open that wallet too fast to bet on the Giants, not just yet at least. Two wins by a total of four points, one against the #30 ESPN power-rated team in Carolina and last week’s ridiculous comeback against what we now know is a bad Tennessee team don’t instill confidence against the Cowboys this week or upcoming games against the Packers ( in England) and Ravens in Week 6. The Giants are 2.5 point favorites at home on Monday night and the game has the lowest total on Sunday at 39.5 at FanDuel. Cowboys backers have been active with more than 70% taking America’s team so far, but under the total appears to be a solid play, especially if this total goes up prior to game time.

The Miami Dolphins are not as big a surprise to be undefeated heading into Week 3 and they have been fun to watch and profitable to bet on. The comeback on Sunday was a big surprise and was the first time in a dozen years a team came back from a three TD deficit in the fourth quarter to win. The Fish have moved up to #5 on the ESPN Power ratings chart and Tua is turning doubters into believers. But can they continue this for an 18 week season?

Week 3 is THE test for Miami. They host the Bills, who have been on fire. The bookmakers have a crooked number up right now with Buffalo (-5.5) and the entire planet is taking Buffalo, and for good reason. Buffalo has won the last seven meetings, scored more than 30 in their first two games this year and MVP candidate Josh Allen has thrown 16 TD vs. two INTs in his 6 starts against Miami since 2018. The total of 53.5 is the highest on the board this week and this game could easily go over that. if betting OVER the point total do it NOW, as these odds were at 51 point prior to the Bills game last night and are already at 54 at some sportsbooks.

So many teams at 1-1
Maybe your team laid an egg in the opener, of fell apart in Week 2. Regardless, most NFL teams are 1-1 right now. The New York Jets and Denver Broncos are two of the one win surprises, but for different reasons.

Denver was hoping that Russell Wilson could lead them to the promised land, but so far the road has been extremely bumpy. They simply can’t score in the Red Zone. They barely beat the Houston Texans last week after losing to the Wilson-less Seahawks on the MNF opener, ironically scoring 16 points in each contest. But Sunday’s matchup against the 49ers (also 1-1) is one to keep an eye on. The game opened with Denver as a slight favorite, but after the Broncos slow start and return of JimmyG under center for the Niners, the home team is now a one or 1.5 point dog! Denver as a home dog is generally a solid angle that we will be looking into closer to the weekend.

The Jets lost to the Ravens (1-1) in Week 1, but held their own vs. Lamar Jackson and co. Then last week, they beat Cleveland (1-1) with a two-touchdown comeback in the final two minutes behind Joe Flacco. Flacco still has some juice and right now sports a better QBR than guys like Brady and Rogers. They face the 0-2 Bengals on Sunday, who look to stop the free fall from losing in the Super Bowl last year. Until the Jets prove they can do something other than a crazy comeback, it is hard to back them moving forward, even against a flailing Cincinnati team or next week vs. Pittsburgh (1-1).

Ouch – Oh and Two
Tennessee, Las Vegas, Carolina, and the aforementioned Bengals are all winless so far in 2022. None of them were predicted to be particularly bad teams this year, so what is going on? The Raiders were on the wrong end of one of the big game-ending surprises after being up by 20 vs. Arizona, Tennessee and Cincinnati both looked just awful, and It’s time to say that Carolina stinks, while we wonder how Matt Rhule is still coaching at the pro level.

Luckily for the Raiders, they head to Tennessee as road favorites, after the line moved in response to the Titans terrible MNF loss. The Raiders need Derek Carr to improve his 40.6 QBR rating if they stand a chance to win in the NFL. The Bengals dropped all the way to #15 in the power ratings as teams watched film and have made defensive adjustments that Joe Burrow and the Bengal offense have not figured out yet. But, this week it’s off to NY to face the Jets, where they are still favored (-4.5) and should (again?) take care of business. the Panthers are just bad and so are the 0-2 Falcons. The Falcons are the #32 power-rated team. They faded in the second half in Week 1 vs. the Saints and their surprising 24 point explosion creating a huge second half comeback last week fell short against the Rams. Mariota is having his best season so far in 5 years, but the Falcons have to find a way to get TE Kyle Pitts involved more. He’s a #1 pick and a beast, but has just four catches for 38 yards in two games. They are on the road at Seattle getting 1.5 points, but opened as 3.5 or four point dogs, before the big comeback vs. the Rams. Too often numbers et skewed by public perception and this is one of those games. Seattle has some value in this game as they really should be a field goal favorite. We can’t discuss (or bet) on Carolina until Rhule is gone, that’s my rule and I’m sticking to it.