NFL Week 4 Betting: Dog Report

NFL underdog picks for Week 4 from FairwayJay

The Sunday slate for Week 4 kicks off the month of October. And just one team remains undefeated – the Philadelphia Eagles (3-0). That’s after the Cincinnati Bengals knocked out QB Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins 27-15 Thursday night. I bet on the Bengals, who were favored, and provided added insight and betting info in my NFL update for Forbes. 

When I looked at the NFL Week 4 card and evaluated into the late week, I thought I might have one underdog pick this week or even pass. Passing isn’t an option I determined, and I should be able to have enough confidence in at least one NFL underdog, correct? 

After further review and additional research, studying stats and situations and game planning (listen up Kyler Murray), I’m going to add some contrary underdog picks, including on the Cardinals. Our goal here is to chip-in additional winners so you can continue to profit from the experience. We’re firing for the green and shooting for our fourth straight winning week to start the 2022 NFL season. 

Jacksonville (+6.5) at Philadelphia
Philadelphia has been the best and most impressive NFC team through three weeks of the season. The Eagles join the Jaguars as the two biggest movers up the NFL power ratings, as Jacksonville has been the best and most impressive team in the AFC the past two weeks (not the Bills). The Jaguars and Eagles both average more than 30 rushing attempts per game. That’s a positive profile I have outlined before. And we got ahead of the market and improved play of the Jaguars in their Week 2 win over the Colts, 24-0. We had to back off on the Jaguars last week with our huge card already full, and the uncertain status of QB Justin Herbert as the betting line dived and then rose again before kickoff. Regardless, the Jaguars crushed the Chargers 38-10 on the road and the Jags outrushed the Chargers 151-26. You know by now how that turns out. But did you know the Jaguars currently feature the leagues top rush defense? Jacksonville is allowing just 55 rushing yards per game – exactly half of the Eagles 110 rushing yards allowed per game. The Jaguars allow 3.1 yards per rush, and have faced Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler with two offensive lines that PFF rated in the top third of the league. The Eagles are allowing an NFC-worst 5.4 yards per rush, but Philly does have perhaps the top offensive line in the league which has allowed QB Jalen Hurts to excel so far this season. 

The Eagles are 3-0 with wins over the Lions, Vikings and Commanders. Any of those teams very impressive yet? The correct answer is No, but the media and sportsbooks have made the Eagles the NFC favorite before October. Market perception of these two teams is still dichotomous, yet it’s the Jaguars and QB Trevor Lawrence that have been among the NFL’s best on a per-play efficiency basis to start the year. The Jaguars are forging a new identity under their head coach Doug Peterson, who returns to Philadelphia where he was head coach for 5 years and brought a Super Bowl championship to the city of Brotherly Love. We just might fall in love with the Jaguars after this week with another outright winner.  

Arizona (+1) at Carolina
We might regret this with a questionable coach and carefree and careless quarterback who needs better training and study habits. Both the Cardinals and Panthers are 1-2 and each team has scored 62 points with below average yards per play and efficiency. But the Cardinals have the higher upside with QB Kyler Murray, and did you know Arizona is 7-0 SU/ATS as a road ‘Dog during the regular season in their last 7 road games as the puppy?

 Betting on the ‘Come’ understanding too that the Cardinals have played the Chiefs, Raiders and Rams to start the season – all playoff teams from last season. The Panthers have looked lousy playing the Browns, Giants and Saints – all sub-par teams themselves at this point. The Panthers won last week and I bet ’em early and on the moneyline, but it was not an impressive win despite really never being in doubt. More mistakes by Saints QB Winston and a 3-0 turnover margin favoring the Panthers helped, but Carolina only gained 293 yards – their third straight game under 300 yards offense. Baker Mayfield has completed just 52% of his passes, and he and the Panthers offense hasn’t shown they can take advantage of a weaker defensive secondary like the Cardinals yet. Mayfield ranks No. 29 of 32 starting quarterbacks in QB DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). The Cardinals have not looked good so far, but last week’s 20-12 loss to the Rams saw Arizona out-gain LA 365-339 and run 81 plays to 46 for the Rams while controlling the ball for 34 minutes. Murray and his minions lacked efficiency, but if Arizona plays their Cards right like they did in the second half comeback to hit the Jackpot in Las Vegas in Week 2, then Arizona will be returning home 2-2 ahead of next week’s big game against the Eagles. Fly Cardinals Fly.    

Kansas City (+1) at Tampa Bay

The Chiefs took tons of cash last week and burned bettors money at the sportsbooks. Not ours of course, as we cashed in on the Colts outright ‘Dog win over KC. 

Same with the Packers, as we bagged some cash betting against the Buccaneers in the Packers wire-to-wire ugly Dog win, 14-12. Brady and Bucs offense is dreadful at this point, averaging less than 300 yards per game and just 4.8 yards per play. Tampa Bay’s offense ranks No. 27 at Football Outsiders, and Brady is below average in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement). That’s not what Tommy terrific had in mind when he un-retired to keep playing at age 45. Fortunately for the Bucs and Brady, the Tampa defense is near dominant and can cover up the offenses shortcomings. Well, maybe not this week with today’s top QB Patrick Mahomes, who ranks No. 2 in QB DVOA and No. 4 in QBR. The Chiefs go from a steamed up 6-point favorite to an underdog. 

How rare is that under Reid/Mahomes? We see a market over-reacting (again) after the Chiefs were originally favored over the Buccaneers. Under the hood further is the Chiefs stronger special teams than the Buccaneers, and the Bucs have won while creating turnovers and sitting +4 in TO margin this season. Let’s trust Reid, Mahomes and the Chiefs to have a few surprises to counter the Buccaneers, and make more plays in victory. Fortunately for Brady and the Bucs as well is that they play in the NFC South. Now they play the best in the AFC West.  

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL point spread predictions. Follow FairwayJay here at GamblersWORLD.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more gambling insights.