NFL Wild Card Betting: Playoff Trends and Stats

NFL Wild Card Betting Trends

The NFL is always tweaking their product and this year an expanded playoff field spans all weekend, with three days of games for Wild Card Weekend, ending with the best game of the weekend on MNF. The NFL playoffs almost always offer great betting opportunities and the 2023 playoffs are no exception. I’ll take a look at some NFL Wild Card betting trends below and apply them to a couple of games this weekend.

Playoff Betting

Every year, oddsmaker are well ahead of the curve, as always, and offer larger point spreads on the very best teams. This weekend features three games that have points spreads in excess of a TD. The San Francisco 49ers look like one of the most dangerous teams in the entire playoff field and the top sportsbooks have them posted at 9.5 point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks. The biggest spread on the board belongs to the Buffalo Bills who are 13.5 point favorites over the Tua-less Dolphins. The Ravens/Bengals game has had some interesting line movements, with the Cincinnati up to -10 at some books and then back down, currently resting at -8.5 at many of the biggest shops, including FanDuel.

The big spreads ae significant because this has been a huge winning NFL Wild Card betting trend for bettors over previous decades. Favorites of nine-plus points are 11-1 ATS in the Wild Card round going back 30 years and double digit favorites, like the Bills, are 9-1 ATS going back to 1996! In addition, in subsequent rounds, the trend continues with double-digit favorites going 9-1 ATS over the last decade.

Rookie quarterbacks have traditionally struggled in the Wild Card round, not unexpected for their first time starting an NFL playoff game. Rookie quarterbacks are 4-7-1 ATS over the last 20 seasons in the Wild Card round. However, Brock Purdy may be one of those exceptions to the NFL Wild Card betting trend for the 49ers. He has gone 5-0 and 4-1 ATS since taking over for inured Jimmy Garoppolo.

Looking at these first two trends, the Dolphins are in trouble come Sunday. Rookie Skylar Thompson has played in a handful of games this season, but the 7th round pick has more interceptions than TDs and has lost two fumbles. He will face a stout Bills defense, in Buffalo, where the game time temps are expected to be 25 degrees.

If the third string, rookie QB isn’t enough, there’s one more thing working against the Fins. The #7 seed has covered just one time in the wild-card round, while going 0-6 SU. The other seven seed . . . the Seahawks against the 49ers.

Use these NFL Wild Card betting trends as a guide when looking at this weekend’s games.