Be smart; be selective when betting on the NFL
Some NFL bettors may look at what they have in front of them in a sportsbook and see it as a big buffet, with “all you can eat.”
With an invitation like that, and all the possibilities it presents, it makes it difficult to pass the whole thing up.
Yet you will probably have to do just that to have any long-term success at this endeavor.
We kid you not.
The Power of Selectivity in NFL Betting
One of the things you have at your disposal is the ability to pick which games you want to bet on, and which ones you pass up. Don’t abuse that ability.
The principle of “selectivity” can make the difference between winning and losing when you wager on the NFL.
And what we mean by that is that you’re going to be very particular about which of the menu items you are going to put your money on.
Many years ago, I recalled a tout friend of mine who used to tell his customers “Games are the enemy.” Of course, those remarks had an ulterior motive because he was maneuvering players to pay him after he won a couple of games.
But what he said isn’t too far wrong. The principle is sound.
The Risk Of Over-Betting and the Impact of Juice
Remember, if you’re talking about NFL betting, you are generally laying -110 as a standard. And that 11-to-10 can eat you up as you continue to move along. The more games you wager on, the more of that “juice” you’ll have to overcome.
Indeed, the practice of “playing the board” is a risky proposition. If you are going to bet on a lot of games, you better have the edge consistently. Otherwise, you’re going to find yourself working a lot to catch up.
Avoid the Temptation of Betting on TV games
So how do you demonstrate being selective on a week-to-week basis? Well, let’s put it this way – if you are tempted to bet on television games just because they’re television games, you will want to consider breaking that habit. They do not necessarily represent the best value for you. At the same time, there are a lot of games on TV, and they come on different days and at different times.
You’ve got the Thursday games on Amazon Prime, and the Sunday games on FOX and CBS, scheduled for 1 PM and the 4 PM hour (Eastern time). They’ll even have some Sunday morning games, coming from overseas. And NBC runs a game at night. There are Saturday games late in the season, and there are even a couple of Friday games now.
Of course, the ultimate “bailout” game would be Monday Night Football on ESPN, would it not?
We’re not sure all of this is specifically designed to accommodate the bettor, but we know (as do you) that the NFL has always considered it good for business if people are betting. After the federal laws had changed, the relationship between the NFL and sportsbooks became quite a bit wider.
Exercise Willpower: Don’t Fall for the Sucker’s Path
The networks will cover the odds and openly handicap player props as part of their pre-game studio shows. Invariably, these segments are sponsored by online sportsbooks.
It’s a test of your willpower, for sure. But we are asking you to have some.
We understand that you are probably doing this for recreation and you want to have fun with the games you are playing. But at the same time, you don’t want to go down the sucker’s path. Betting a game just because it is on TV isn’t a wise move. If you can’t possibly resist doing something to have a “rooting interest,” go very easy on your wager.
Your best weapon is the ability to say “No” on those you would be betting on just for the sake of itself, and “Yes” to those select few that make sense to you, as if you weren’t going to watch anything at all.
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