Shoot The Rock – Betting College Basketball for February 1-2

College Basketball Betting Preview: February 1-2 on Gamblers World

It’s February, Time to Look at What Lies Ahead for March Madness

With January in the rearview mirror, our attention is not only on betting college basketball but we begin thinking about March Madness. No, we don’t need to pay any attention to Joe Lunardi or any other so-called bracketologists, the television networks will give us plenty of them.

Instead, we need to start paying attention to who is playing well and who isn’t heading into March. In a couple of weeks, we’ll give you a betting tip to prepare for March Madness.

For betting purposes, when looking at the matchups, consider each team’s last five games. Since they were conference battles and that’s what lies ahead, review SU and ATS records, looking at how teams perform home and away.

Also, check shooting percentages for offense and defense and see if they are three or more percentage points higher than the season averages. This could be a great indicator if teams are improving or not, looking ahead.

Once you have completed this aspect of capping, also study who they have played in those games. If they played weaker competitions and feasted, the upcoming opponents might be troublesome and it would be easy to overrate a club based on past results. Those who put in the work often secure more rewards.

February is also Payback Month

With so many more bloated conferences, the number of return engagements is reduced on the schedule. Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean there aren’t any with so many conferences.

Blindly betting on same-season revenge is a bad idea. Instead, search for possible keys.

Take two somewhat evenly matched squads, who in their previous conflict had a home favorite of four points or less. Let’s say the favorite won by 20, shooting 55% and the road underdog shot 38%. In the rematch, the first-game loser is home and is a Pick to -2 home fave. If the home team just had a below-average shooting night, either foe is run-of-the-mill in field goal percentage defense, the short home favorite should have value, likely to make more shots at home and play better on their own court.

Another scenario is a double-digit chalky home favorite is upset, having done everything wrong by taking for granted they would win. They committed six more turnovers than normal, missed 10 free throws despite making 75% on the season, and gave up a higher-than-anticipated field goal percentage. If the home opponent off that fluky upset has since returned to normal, as long as the road fave doesn’t have a rivalry skirmish next, handing out seven or more points on the road should not be an issue.

Crazy College Basketball Trend of the Week!

At 8-12 SU not much stands out about San Jose State. The Spartans have a score differential of +2.0 which isn’t bad for a losing team. They are #190 in scoring (74.3 PPG) and #20 in points allowed (72.2). When reviewing a variety of stats, there is nothing exceptional except this.

San Jose State is the best spread cover team in D-1 college hoops at 16-4 ATS. With their skill, the Spartans play inside oddsmakers’ expectations. They just hang around and if you have seen them play, more often than not they are five or more points inside the number as a dog or favorite. Here is the weird part, they lost their first three against the number and are 16-1 ATS since. Will it hold up, be sure to follow!

Top Weekend Games: Power Ratings are from KenPom

We look at the top matchups for the weekend for ranked teams or best conference matchups and supply the home team with a standard -3 point spread.

Saturday

#5 Florida @ #8 Tennessee
Power Rated – Tennessee -1.5

Look closely at the total, that could be a determining factor. Compare it to the team’s season averages, plus respective home and away. If the total is four or more points away from the average the oddsmakers are telling you something. Just off the top, this writer prefers Florida’s more consistent offense.

#20 Missouri @ #14 Mississippi St.
Power Rated – Miss. State -5

Missouri has played sneaky good all year and flown under the radar despite the 16-4 SU record. At this number, the Tigers could be worth a look with the Bulldogs off a four-point home loss to #4 Alabama this week.

#1 Auburn @ #23 Ole Miss
Power Rated – Auburn -10

After starting 15-2, Ole Miss lost three in a row and had a shaky win over Texas on Wednesday. It’s hard to go against Auburn even with a target on their back.

North Carolina @ #2 Duke
Power Rated – Duke -19

The spread is unlikely this high given the history between these teams. Nonetheless, Duke is flat-out superior and should score at will against the smallish Tar Heels. See what the line is and possibly consider the Tar Heels on the first half line. Otherwise, Duke at a reasonable number works.

#25 Connecticut @ #9 Marquette
Power Rated – Marquette -10

The Huskies are not the defensive dogs of the past two seasons and lack the player leadership to boot. Marquette has played a little unnerving recently and is no slam dunk. If you knew Connecticut would be focused, they’d be the easy choice. An interesting week ahead for the Golden Eagles with roadies at St. John’s and Creighton on tap.

Utah Valley @ Grand Canyon
Power Rated – Grand Canyon -9

The Top 2 teams in the WAC with Utah Valley 7-0 and GCU 6-1. Grand Canyon is just 6-13 ATS and has not played with the same urgency this season. If Utah Valley is receiving seven or more points, consider.

New Mexico @ Utah State
Power Rated – Utah State -5

The best two clubs in the Mountain West are tied at 9-1. The Dee Glen Smith Spectrum is a nasty place to play for visitors and the line usually reflects that. At this figure, the Utes seem like the proper choice.

Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s
Power Rated – Gonzaga -1

Though neither team is ranked which is unusual, this is still an outstanding rivalry battle. If Gonzaga plays their best, they win, but that has not always been the case this season, especially away from home. Take St. Mary’s with their stifling defense.

Sunday

Ohio State @ #18 Illinois
Power Rated – Illinois -5.5

Illinois is overrated at this point. They might be offensively talented but you have to win games too. Ohio State is similar, you never know what you’ll get from game to game. Here we’d rather take the points than give them.

North Dakota St. @ St. Thomas (Minn.)
Power Rated – St. Thomas -1

The Summit League doesn’t draw much attention. Still, these are two of the best three teams currently (Omaha the other) and KenPom has visiting North Dakota State higher ranked. St. Thomas is #10 in scoring at over 84 PPG and they win this encounter.

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