Shoot The Rock – Betting College Basketball for February 15-16

College Basketball Betting Preview: February 15-16 on Gamblers World

Preparing for the March Madness Basketball Tournament

If you haven’t done as well in the Men’s NCAA Tournament in the First 4 and First Round, here is something to try. It will involve a little work but is very helpful, especially if you are short on time leading up to the games.

On Monday morning Feb. 17, copy and paste the entire college basketball D-1 standings from ASUN to the West Coast Conference. You want the conference standings and the team’s overall record as of this date. Now you are done until when the bids come out in four weeks.

March Madness Preparation Once the Bids are Announced

On Sunday night, March 16, or the next day, using a spreadsheet or the trusty pencil and paper, make four brackets showing who plays who and leave room next to the teams like this.

#4 Kansas

#13 Montana State

The next step is to find the standings you copied from four weeks earlier to determine what their record was and is now and list it.

#4 Kansas                   5-4

#13 Montana State  9-1

From here, right down what that position was in the conference standings in February and how they completed the regular season.

#4 Kansas                   5-4   6^th   7th

#13 Montana State  9-1   3       1

Lastly, mark down where they finished in the conference tournament. The designations could be Lost 1^st Round, lost Quarters, lost Semis, 2^nd or 1^st.

#4 Kansas                   5-4   6th   7^th  Lost Quarters

#13 Montana State  9-1   3       1         1^st

What this does is provide you with an overview of how each team finished their season. Are teams plodding along, closing hot, or somewhere in between?

If you make your own power ratings, put a number on this contest without looking at any spreads. Though you know Kansas is the more talented team, they were only so-so down the stretch in the rugged Big 12. Though the Big Sky doesn’t begin to compare with the Big 12, Montana State has surged to the Big Dance and is completely confident.

Let’s say you have Kansas at -12 or if you prefer KenPom or another outlet and the actual spread has the Jayhawks at -15. That opens up the possibility of a play on Montana State. From here you go through your normal handicapping procedure, studying the numbers, seeking edges, and seeing if these align.

Maybe you like the underdog and want to bet on it, great. Or, you think Montana State can hang around for 30 minutes, but the size and quickness difference will matter late in the contest. That’s where a first-half wager on the underdog could be a smart play, especially if Kansas has a bigger matchup next.

Typically, you will have four to seven plays that work off the top and research helps whittle the number done. This writer/handicapper came up with this in 1994 and used it ever since with excellent results. If you have the time, this method can help in the first round of the tournament.

Crazy Trend of the Week!

First half wagers are far more prevalent in betting circles for pro sports than college, mostly because there is a finite list of teams. But that doesn’t mean you should ignore something like college basketball when you simplify the process.

Here are the Top 3 clubs to follow for first-half betting.

Omaha 19-6 ATS

Geroge Mason 18-6 ATS

Liberty 15-5-2 ATS

What is a benefit of considering these squads is the first two lead their conferences and Liberty is tied for second. That suggests a quality club that comes to play and takes it to the opposition, which should enhance your confidence to back them.

Top Weekend Games: Power Ratings are from KenPom

We look at the weekend’s top matchups for ranked teams or the best conference matchups and supply the home team with a standard -3-point spread.

Saturday

#16 Wisconsin @ #7 Purdue 
Power Rated – Purdue -5

Purdue lost the lead late at Michigan to tumble into 2nd place in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers will be ready for Wisconsin. However, the Badgers are 6-1 ATS on the Big Ten road and if the spread is this number or higher, Whisky is worth a strong look.

#6 Houston @ #13 Arizona
Power Rated – Houston -5.5

Arizona was in a bad spot schedule-wise this week and lost at Kansas State. Houston’s not as dominant lately at 1-3 and 4-4 ATS in the Big 12. The Cougars are permitting more shots at the rim and the Wildcats could keep this close at home.

#1 Auburn @ #2 Alabama 
Power Rated – Auburn -3.5

What a terrific game with monster implications nationally and for the SEC tournament, which will be the best this season. Alabama has a real chance to win since the Tigers Johni Broome has not been the same player since returning from an ankle injury.

#22 Miss. State @ #19 Ole Miss 
Power Rated – Ole Miss -7

The Bulldogs took the first meeting in OT three weeks ago. The Rebels get their revenge but beating the spread might be another matter.

#11 Michigan St. @ Illinois 
Power Rated – Illinois -4.5

Michigan State losing at home to Indiana was a stunner. The Spartans have fallen in three of four and frankly looking at their talent, they have overachieved this season, is who they might be? Illinois is young, talented, and unpredictable. Sparty wins by three or loses by seven, what do you think happens?

Omaha @ St. Thomas-Minn
Power Rated – St. Thomas -9

First place on the line in the Summit League. The Tommies are the better squad and average 84 PPG. Omaha knows how to win single-digit games and if the spread is this high, the Mavericks can cover.

Sunday

#24 Creighton @ #9 St. John’s 
Power Rated – St. John’s -8

A huge game in the Big East and one team will come away with a second straight loss. Love the Creighton offense and spacing but the St. John’s defense, length, and quickness are the difference.

Bradley @ Drake 
Power Rated – Drake -9

When these teams met at Bradley in early January, the Braves were the better outfit and a two-point favorite. Drake won by 7 and hasn’t looked back in winning 11 in a row. If this is the number, it could be a touch high. If the Bulldogs have a lower number, they are the play.

Youngstown St. @ Cleveland St. 
Power Rated – Cleveland St. -6

Cleveland State has ruled the Horizon all season but fell at home to Robert Morris this week, who is one of four teams two games back of the Vikings. Youngstown State lost four of six early in the Horizon but has turned it around at 5-1 SU. The Penguins lost by 8 earlier at home and the same outcome is likely.

Utah State @ New Mexico 
Power Rated – New Mexico -5

The Mountain West might be terrible in the NCAA Tournament, yet it is a good league full of shooters. These two are the cream of the crop. The Lobos lambasted the Aggies by 19 just over two weeks in Logan. Can Utah State turn the tables in Albuquerque?

Get more College Basketball betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.