Shoot The Rock – Betting College Basketball for January 24-26

College Basketball Betting Preview: January 24-26 on Gamblers World

With football all but over, college basketball hops into center stage, still in the early stages of conference plays. Here is what’s going on in the sport and look at key weekend matchups and free pick thoughts.

Is John Calipari Past His Prime?

After wearing out his welcome in Kentucky, Calipari left for Arkansas. The school gave him ample NIL money, believing he was their guy to return to the Nolan Richardson championship days. At 12-7 and 5-14 ATS, just winning their first SEC game this week, the Razorbacks have talent, but no cohesiveness.

College basketball has changed and at 66, Calipari seems out of step with how the game is played. Offensive screening is more complex to create spacing and defenses find Cal’s offense not hard to defend, especially when the initial part of a play breaks down. Anonymous coaches that have played Arkansas or Kentucky in the last couple of years suggested privately that they believe his days of operating at the top of college basketball might be over according to reports.

Losing star freshman Boogie Fland this week, maybe for the season, places added pressure on a roster that is no more than seven deep. The Hogs could be Play Against for bettors the rest of the season.

How Good Are the Houston Cougars?

The Houston Cougars are 15-3 (11-7 ATS), ranked #7, KenPom has them #3 and the BPI rankings have them #1. This writer is not a fan of bracketologists, yet it’s worth noting Joe Lunardi has Houston as a 4-seed and Jerry Palm lists the Cougars as a 5-seed. Why is this?

What stands out the most is Houston’s strength of schedule. While there are numerous methods of grading this, if you use KenPom SOS, the Cougars are #17 of the Top 23 clubs by their rankings. Houston doesn’t have a Quadrant 1 victory (0-3). That will presumably change, as their next three assignments are at Kansas and West Virginia and a home tilt with Texas Tech.

With how good the Cougs’ defense is, this team does not seem to have reached a ceiling, but do they have enough size to compete in the paint?

Houston should be Play On at home, with more research needed when they hit the road.

Crazy Trend of the Week!

The Summit League doesn’t draw much attention unless you are working the betting card daily. South Dakota is 12-9 and 8-8-2 ATS and is in the middle of the standings in the Summit.

Despite the numbers, the Coyotes are full of extremes. They are #5 in scoring at 86.6 PPG and #357 (out of 364) in points allowed at 83.3 PPG. Talk about we taketh and giveth away! In spite of what seems incredibly simple to understand, oddsmakers cannot combat South Dakota as they are 16-1-1 OVER, far and away the best in the sport. What are you looking for on Saturday when the Coyotes meet their in-state rival South Dakota State?

Top Weekend Games: Power Ratings are from KenPom

We look at the top matchups for the weekend for ranked teams or best conference matchups and supply the home team with a standard -3 point spread.

Friday

Villanova @ #10 Marquette – Power Rated – Marquette -13 (actual -9.5)

The Wildcats were playing better but are on a 1-3 and 0-4 ATS slide. Nova likely gives a strong effort, but it’s hard not to like Marquette at home in this Big East battle.

#21 Michigan @ #11 Purdue – Power Rated – Purdue -3.5 (actual -4)

Another Big Ten loss places the loser even further behind unbeaten Michigan State. Purdue was awful at home against Ohio State this week; it’s hard to see the Boilermakers playing another bad game at home facing a possibly short point spread.

 Saturday

#2 Duke @ Wake Forest
Power Rated – Duke -23

Duke is far and away the class of the ACC, but with an upset, Wake Forest could tie the Blue Devils for first place. At home, the Demon Deacons will have a shot to cover and it seems unlikely the spread will be this large.

Miami-O @ Akron
Power Rated – Akron -7

Both teams enter this MAC matchup 6-0, with Miami-O 5-1 ATS and Akron 4-2 ATS. Each club scores in the 80’s and has a point differential of +10, thus, look at the total for a possible OVER.

UW-Green Bay @ Cleveland State
Power Rated – Cleveland State -19.5

The best and worst of the Horizon League, with Cleveland State at 9-1 and Green Bay winless at 0-10. The Vikings won by 22 near Lambeau Field earlier and can name the score. CSU overs if they want to.

#9 Kentucky @ Vanderbilt
Power Rated – Kentucky -5.5

Vandy knocked off Tennessee at home last week and can engineer another SEC home underdog upset. The Commodores will have to keep pace offensively, which they are capable of. It’s a matter of can the ‘Dores slow down Kentucky’s transition offense. Possible.

#7 Houston @ #12 Kansas
Power Rated – Houston -4

With these two defenses, the UNDER is the logical choice, but will the books make it so low you cannot bet it? It’s time for the Jayhawks and Hunter Dickinson to stop playing so passively. Take the digits.

#19 Connecticut @ Xavier
Power Rated – Pick

This number shows this UConn squad is not comparable to the past two championship editions. Look for a tremendous battle, with the Huskies having just enough to squeak this one out.

#6 Tennessee @ #1 Auburn
Power Rated – Auburn -9.5

In all facets, Auburn has the edge over Tennessee. Playing at home even without Broome, the Tigers have more than enough in the tank to drop Tennessee.

Sunday

UAB @ #24 Memphis
Power Rated – Memphis -16

These two and North Texas have one setback in the AAC. Nonetheless, if the number is anywhere close to this, how do you back Memphis who has covered three times in their 13 starts? UAB has covered both American road contests and makes it 3-0 ATS.

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