Shoot The Rock – Betting College Basketball for March 1-2

College Basketball Betting Preview: March 1-2 on Gamblers World

Late Season Shading Numbers

A good friend of this writer who prefers to remain unknown does work for a few syndicates and used to make odds for different offshore sportsbooks. We talked this week and he shared this finding with me about college basketball.

The last three weeks of the college hoops regular season will find certain power conference home teams and particular smaller conference clubs that regularly have near or actual sellouts having one point added to their point spread.

The reason is because it’s true. Teams in contention to win or compete for a conference championship or tournament seeding perform better late in the season. This is not to imply they win and cover at a crazy rate, but history shows they play with greater urgency in front of a packed house which is worth a point in these instances.

If a line in these types of matchups looks just a little higher, there is a reason why.

Conference Tournament Wagering

On Sunday, the Atlantic Sun conference will kick off the festivities of March Madness and 13 more leagues/conferences will follow suit before next Saturday.

Most bettors are not as familiar with many teams playing the first week of March. If this is you, it’s probably not wise to start betting on teams where you have little knowledge of their tendencies throughout the season.

Instead, pick a few conferences and follow all aspects of the seeding, who is advancing, and how they accomplished it. If you do this you will have working knowledge where you place a smaller wager on the conference semi-finals or finals, backed with insight.

Things you want to be alert of on all tournament confrontations:

*Previous meeting(s) that season

*Defensive FG percentage: Teams 40% and lower is good

*Rest vs No Rest

*Small Favorites or Underdogs with rest (-3 to +3): 60+%

*Teams Play 3 or 4 consecutive days: Play Against

Saturday

#1 Auburn @ #17 Kentucky
Power Rated – Auburn -9

Not sure the number will be quite this large, though it could be close. Kentucky can compete in the backcourt with Auburn but doesn’t appear to have answers upfront.

#10 Texas Tech @ Kansas
Power Rated – Texas Tech -1

This is a litmus test for both teams to see where they are in March and what the future might look like. With @Houston and Arizona on deck, Kansas has to gain confidence. Texas Tech lost at Houston in the past game and with just Colorado and Arizona State left, all the focus needs to be here. Too close to call, but an UNDER is quite possible.

#6 Alabama @ #5 Tennessee
Power Rated – Tennessee -5

A battle royal and it is all about imposing your will. The Crimson Tide wants to speed up Tennessee and make them play their game. The Volunteers look to play at their speed, get the ball inside, and defend Alabama in the halfcourt. The total could be very telling what the oddsmakers think.

Utah State @ Colorado State
Power Rated – Push

These two are tied for second place in the Mountain West and the winner remains in contention to still hunt down front-running New Mexico. Colorado State lost at Utah State 18 days ago by 8 as 6.5-point underdogs. Expect the Rams to secure their revenge.

#12 Texas A&M @ #3 Florida
Power Rated – Florida -13

Both squads are off shocking losses the last time out. Texas A&M’s lack of good shooting has caused them to lose three in a row and that has affected their defensive intensity. If Florida is favored by double digits that could be too big a number. Yet, trusting the Aggies with the Gators’ firepower is uncomfortable. See the spread, then decide accordingly.

#22 Arizona @ #9 Iowa State
Power Rated – Iowa State -3

These ranked Big 12 partners look like they could reach the conference finals in the tournament or get knocked off in their first game. If either is to make a run in Kansas City, they must string together victories before getting to K.C.

Gonzaga vs. San Francisco
Power Rated – Gonzaga -10

With a loss, Gonzaga could fall to third place in the WCC before their tournament starts next week. That would be unfathomable. The Zags will be helped by playing at the Chase Center, home of Golden State so the crowd will be larger, but lacking the intimacy of the Dons’ regular arena. If the Bulldogs play with the same desire they played with at Santa Clara the other night, they win and cover.

Sunday

#11 Wisconsin @ #8 Michigan State
Power Rated – Mich. State -2.5

Michigan aside, these might be the two best clubs in the Big Ten right now. However, hard to go against Tom Izzo in March.

#18 Memphis @ UAB
Power Rated – Memphis -8.5

UAB could tie Memphis for first in the AAC if they can pull off the home upset. With the Tigers only 5-10 ATS in conference play, they are vulnerable against the number. However, in games where Memphis was expected to be tested, they’ve come through. At -7 or lower, the Tigers are worth a look.

Northern Iowa @ Bradley
Power Rated – Bradley -3

The winner secures the #2 seed in the Missouri Valley tournament. Either way, if both clubs win their quarterfinal meeting next week, they will meet for a third time this season and have a chance for the automatic bid. Northern Iowa won the earlier matchup by 14 at home and goes for the sweep, but this seems unlikely in Peoria.

Get more College Basketball betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.