College Basketball Betting Preview: March 7-9
Here are betting tips for Championship Week for Conference Tournaments.
Though the term March Madness at the college level is most often associated with the NCAA Tournament, the roughly nine full days of college tournament action are loaded with upsets or at the least stunning point spreads covered by underdogs.
That is why it helps to have college basketball betting tips to hopefully avoid landmines on sides and totals.
Neutral Site Totals
This used to be a gold mine before books adjusted, but there are still ample opportunities to find particular value.
Neutral court sites offer different sight lines and backgrounds that can alter a shooter’s depth perception. This is often
truer in the first game or two a team plays at such a site.
Though this is not exact, take the previous two meetings in the current season, if the two totals were within say two points of one another and for the third matchup opened 4 to 4.5 points lower, the number is fair. If the number is higher than that, that could add value to an UNDER wager.
Pro Tip – If you want to bet UNDERs, be prepared to bet close to release for the greatest value. If you prefer OVERS, buy the line at its lowest point.
Previous Same Season Meetings
There used to be an adage – It’s hard to beat the same team three times in a season. That was largely true. The mindset of the athlete is different today because the sheer hatred of the opponent was more real in the past. Today’s athlete feels if I beat you twice already, “I own you.”, especially if the margins of victory were larger.
A general way to look at this is if a team was favored home and away by say three to seven points and wins by 11 or more points each time, catching a shaded -6 on the favorite is not a bad number on a neutral court, as they’ve proven to have edges in the matchup.
Conversely, if a club swept their opponent as four to seven-point favorites, winning each time by three or four points and is a four-point fave on a neutral floor, the underdog is worth consideration having played the fave tough twice.
Study Game Stats
The fact is, what occurred in a contest is a possible precursor to future outcomes. A five-point underdog upsets a higher seed by 10 points to advance. The next opponent is even a higher seed.
In the winning underdog’s stunner, you discover they shot 60 percent (season average is 44%) and made 13 threes when they usually drain seven per contest. While that euphoria could carry over into the next battle, often there is regression to the norm and they might have a substandard game next when shooting.
The opposite can also happen. A favorite escapes by a single point despite making 35% of shot attempts and they are bailed out because the opponent was 12 of 21 from the free throw line. Having survived and advanced, there is a collective relief and this outfit plays back to season norms and beats the number.
Be Wary of Teams Playing Three or More Straight Days
With this many tournaments, there are always a couple of squads that are lower seeds that get hot and engineer upsets.
Though some years these frisky combatants can shock us and win a conference tourney, that is far from usual. Typically, they run out of energy, and the legs get heavier, causing shots that were pure to be off-target. Those steals that were made for a few games, that defender is a half-step slower at this point.
If a team is off three upsets and is eight or more point underdog, the oddsmaker is telling you what they believe the dog’s chances are. Be alert.
Friday
#18 Purdue @ Illinois 
Power Rated – Illinois -2
Purdue, like Illinois, has labored to the close of a Big Ten season, with each having rebounded from multiple losses to win two in a row. The Boilermakers have won five consecutive times versus the Illini, but Illinois superior rebounding should give them the edge.
Saturday
#6 St. John’s @ #20 Marquette
Power Rated – Marquette -1
Marquette needs this victory because a loss could drop them to a 5-seed, making their path in the Big East more treacherous. Besides how different the two clubs are playing, St. John’s also has a coaching edge.
#19 Kentucky @ #15 Missouri
Power Rated – Missouri -2
These are similar SEC squads that like to run and score off their opponents’ miscues. At this number, Missouri should cover at home, with an OVER also a possibility.
#10 Iowa State @ Kansas State
Power Rated – Iowa State -10
Iowa State is another wobbly Top 25 outfit that has lost three of four. Kansas State could be a rugged foe, as they have already won at Ames by 19 and should be fired up for Senior Night to secure a cover.
#7 Alabama @ #1 Auburn
Power Rated – Auburn -10
Each has lost to a ranked combatant this week. Auburn appeared not mentally ready for a hungry Texas A&M contingent. The Crimson Tide has shown they are a step below the elites of the sport but wholly capable of reaching the Elite 8. This is important for each to rekindle the winning feeling.
UC San Diego @ UC-Davis
Power Rated – UC San Diego -21
San Diego wins the regular season crown with a victory over a sometimes pesky UC Davis bunch. How good are the Tritons in just their fifth year of D-1 hoops? They are the highest-rated mid-major club at KenPom (#38 Friday) if you include the WCC and A-10 with the Power Conference teams.
#2 Duke @ North Carolina
Power Rated – Duke -18
Normally we look forward to this rivalry. This year, these programs are on Completely different levels. Can the Tar Heels at least cover to make it interesting?
Sunday
#17 Michigan @ #8 Michigan State
Power Rated – Mich. State -9
We’ll see where the number lands, but Sparty still has the juice to continue and the Wolverines look worn out.
Get more College Basketball betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.
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