Shoot the Rock: Betting the Final Four & Championship

Best Bets for the Final Four & Championship

It’s been 17 seasons since we had four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four, which is only the second time this has happened in the seeding era. Highly respected KenPom.com has those four teams in its all-time Top 10 rankings, going back to 2003. If this isn’t the best Final Four of all time before a game is played, it’s in the Top 3 by any quality measurement.

Here is why each team will either succeed in winning a national championship or come up short, when in many years, each could have been favored to do so.

Duke +105 to Win the Title

Why Duke Wins: Coach Jon Scheyer has done the seemingly impossible: make people not think about Coach K’s shadow over the Duke basketball program. In the NIL era, big-time programs don’t play many freshmen, instead, they raid smaller schools that develop talent. Three of the Blue Devils’ Top 5 scorers are freshmen, with talented veterans being more than supporting players. Duke can play any style and beat you at it. They will be favored in any matchup in San Antonio and are rather large favorites, considering the competition.

Why Duke Comes Up Short: Arizona pushed Duke where Alabama couldn’t, which was in execution. The way to defeat the Blue Devils is by executing on the offensive side and generating turnovers on defense. The winner of the Florida/Auburn battle is best suited to accomplish this. Houston’s defense can definitely create miscues, but scoring droughts are a conundrum.

Betting Tip: It’s better to wager on Duke for game betting rather than to win the tournament now.

Florida +300 to Win the Title

Why Florida Wins: Most knew Florida had a very good club coming into the season. What got everyone’s attention was different: a loss at Kentucky on Jan. 4. The weaknesses of the Wildcats were still unknown in this next-level college hoops game, where the Gators lost 106-100. They backed that up in their next outing, beating then #1 Tennessee by 30 points. This team has more pieces than Duke when it comes to depth, and Walter Clayton Jr. is the biggest stone-cold assassin in this tournament. The fact that Florida is favored over the #1 overall tells you what you need to know.

Why Florida Comes Up Short: If coach Todd Golden’s squad comes up short near the Alamo, it will be for this reason. Against both Connecticut and Tennessee in the tournament, the Gators had no “bite” in their play. They competed but were outworked and not tough until they decided to raise their level of play. In this Final Four, with these opponents, if you are not ready for 40 minutes twice, you get what you deserve.

Betting Tip: A good wager to win it all and money lines in game action.

Houston +400 to Win the Title

Why Houston Wins: Nobody plays with defensive tenacity on every trip like Houston. It is not only physically taxing to feel like you are playing 5 on 6 on offense, but mentally also. What separates this Cougars crew from past editions is being able to make threes with greater regularity. L.J. Cryer is a legit scorer from anywhere, and he’s one of three Houston shooters making 41% or more from behind the arc. Coach Kelvin Sampson has legitimate finishers in the paint to score.

Why Houston Comes Up Short: Most of Houston’s defensive problems all season are with teams pushing the ball on makes and misses before the Cougs are thoroughly set up. Foes that have accomplished this were successful at moving the orange up the floor quickly for layups and dunks when Houston wasn’t set or passing inside out to an open shooter for an uncontested look. Though much better offensively, Houston can have dry spells or occasionally not execute with leads late.

Betting Tip: A small bet to take the hardware and with points in any contest.

Auburn +500 to Win the Title

Why Auburn Wins: Since early February, we have seen Auburn appear more vulnerable than in the first three months of the season. Maybe it was the almost nightly bullseyes on the back or the ruggedness of the SEC, but from Feb. 8 through the SEC tournament, the Tigers were 4-7 ATS. No question, not having Johni Broome made Auburn more vulnerable, as did a few other injuries. In the Tigers’ past three battles, they are 3-0 SU and ATS, showing toughness on both ends of the floor in key moments. Talk about a veteran club; Bruce Pearl’s starters are 22-25 years old and know how to win.

Why Auburn Comes Up Short: Broome was hurt in the Elite 8, and while he finished the game, his non-shooting arm was dragging. He has to be 100 percent against the Florida bigs and get help from teammates. The Tigers’ guards aren’t always reliable, which could hurt them no matter how the frontcourt plays.

Betting Tip: Having the tournament’s top seed with the highest odds seems like a good value bet. Plus, catching points is also attractive.

Get more College Basketball betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.