Jan. 29 NBA – Latest Betting News and Tips
The trade deadline is moving closer and while the speculation market is at warp speed, because our focus is sports betting, we are better equipped to gauge and hand out grades once the deadline has passed.
Instead, we’ll focus on scoring reduction and first-half betting winners and losers!
Scoring in NBA Continues to Trend Lower
From October through December of 2023, the number of totals above 230 and 240 points were at or near all-time highs for the first part of the season. Beginning in January of 2024, the NBA instructed their officials to curtail calls on specific hand-checking violations by players.
This had an immediate impact on the number of free throws called, which meant fewer free throw attempts and fewer
points scored when the clock wasn’t moving. Because of this, teams instructed individuals driving to the basket to go for layups or dunks to score or find open shooters behind the free-throw line.
Though three-point percentages have risen steadily for years, they are still a lower percentage attempt than a shot within five feet of the basket. While the number of foul calls dropped, there are still far more whistled within five feet of the rim than behind the arc.
This season three-point shot attempts have sky-rocketed even higher.
Though we don’t have exact year-to-year data on three-point attempts, we do have this and acknowledge the year-end result could vary.
This season, there are five teams with 40 or more three-point attempts and a total of 12 that take 38 or more shots. Boston leads the way with 48, which is up significantly from just over 40 a year ago. The dozen clubs that hoist 38 or more attempts this season, last year there were only five to reach that benchmark.
While this might not seem like a lot, the median average of free throw attempts has dropped by two from 23.7 per game to 21.7 per game in two seasons. It is an accepted number every two shots from the charity stripe is worth 1.6 points, that alone would account for 3.2 fewer points per contest.
That is why we are seeing more totals in the 220s and even 210s this season than in recent years, with the combination of more three-point attempts without a rise in percentages, fewer free throws, and coaches learning how to defend spacing issues of the past. The spacing today has players running to spot and defenders try and cheat more to the ball, and because of the lack of backdoor cuts or hard rolls to the basket by screeners, defenses can guard more area in today’s game.
What Has This Meant for Totals?
If you are a basketball bettor or sports bettor you already know the answer – Not Much. Because oddsmakers are quick to spot a trend, they can adjust to sport-wide trends in a hurry, and in any given season they only have a few teams that beat them for a period on the high or low level of the spectrum.
Crazy Trend of the Week!
You have probably noticed that the Denver Nuggets have made a run late at 12-4 and 11-5 ATS to move up to the #4 position in the Western Conference. You might not have noticed that the Nuggets are hands down the Best Against team in the first half at 15-31 ATS, down -19.1 units. Make sure to look at this daily moving forward.
Three Best First Half Teams
>Houston 28-17 ATS
>Memphis 28-19 ATS
>Milwaukee 26-18 ATS
The common theme in regards to this trio is they are in the Top 6 in field goal percentage defense. The Bucks are #2, the Grizzlies #4, and the Rockets #6. This allows them to get off to good starts because they hold the opposing team in check, even if the offensive flow does not come right away.
The other unmistakable aspect is guarding two-point shooters. Teams can try and overcommit trying to guard the arc, yet, if you are not protecting the lane and leaving too many mid-range jump shooters open, you’ll get burned. The group is all in the Top 7 of two-point shooting defense with Houston #1, Milwaukee #6, and Memphis #7.
Get more NBA betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.
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