The Impact of Weather on Totals Betting

Weather’s Impact on NFL Betting

It looks like Sunday Night Football will feature a Bills game that will be impacted by ‘lake effect snow’ again. So, it’s time to look at a great betting angle – weather! The impact of weather on scoring is often neglected by NFL bettors when betting on the total number of points scored in a game.  Since 2002, the NFL has seen a steady increase in the total number of points scored. Factors such as cold, wind, and rain greatly affect the total number of points scored.

Wind’s Impact on NFL Scoring

Domes are immune, but excessive wind speeds are the #1 hindrance in both the passing and kicking game and overall scoring. Over the last decade games played under a dome averaged a bit over 46.5 ppg compared to around 42.5 for those played outdoors. The wind has little impact on a game’s rate of scoring until it reaches speeds of 15 mph and above and is more impactful when the average wind speed is 20 mph or greater. In the 60 or so such games studied in the last decade-plus, actual final game totals averaged just over 35 points per game in windy conditions.

Turnovers in Cold Weather

Another thing affected by the weather is turnovers. Colder weather produces more turnovers, it’s that simple. Historically, the average number of turnovers in warm-weather games was just over three. Drop the temp below 20 degrees and you see a 42% jump in combined turnovers. Drop it down below 10 degrees, and the turnover rate jumps another 10%, closing in on nearly double the warm weather rate.  If your team is playing a game outdoors in sub-freezing temperatures, expect turnovers to play a major factor in the outcome, even more so than a typical game. The colder the game, the more turnovers should be expected. It’s a good idea to look at turnover props in extreme cold.

Snow and Betting the Total for SNF Matchup

But what about snow? Bettors are pounding Under the Total for the SNF matchup between the 49ers and Bills, taking the total down from 47, all the way to  43.5. Though some of the drop is also due to the status of 49ers QB Brock Purdy, it is also a knee-jerk reaction to the snow forecast of potentially feet of snow. But, snow does not impact a total like wind. Check the evidence from Week 12, when the Steelers/Browns total was hammered from 43.5 down to 36.5 at game time – a full TD. The Browns won in a snow globe, 24-19, causing the total to exceed even the opening number.

Checking the Weather is Important when Betting 

From past evidence, weather conditions may provide a valuable edge when betting on game totals, so at this time of year, it is important to check the weather, especially in colder cities, before placing any wagers. This weekend, the only game on the board that has winds predicted that may affect the total is the Seahawks at Jets game from the Meadowlands in New Jersey. Though it may be snowing during the Bills game, predicted winds are just 8 MPH. Beware the public reaction to snow and potentially play off it, but keep an eye on the other factors that affect NFL game totals.